Question for Bhagwan
 

Hi Bhaggy

You recently posted info re tipsters polls & the strike rate of the top 2 picks (constantly around 45% from memory).

Does the strike rate drop for races later in the day?, ie are races 5,6,7 etc worse than 1,2,3,4?

Cheers
Mark

I can only supply the figures for the top pick, but there is a significant drop-off between the first four and the last four races. The following stats based on metro races only.

R1: 30.2%
R2: 26.9%
R3: 28.5%
R4: 26.3%
R5: 22.8%
R6: 22.6%
R7: 21.2%
R8: 23.5%

I think a similar trend also applies to actual favourites as well, that is there is a higher strike-rate for the first four races v. the last four races.

La Mer or Bhagwan
 

Please could you quote the S/rate and Av Divy for the winning Favourite over $2.80 all races eg. R1-R9 all tracks and conditions.

Thank for your help in advance - Ray

Thanks La Mer

I thought there would be a drop off in winners to correlate with the drop off in favourites. The last 2 Saturday's have been huge in terms of favs losing in the 2nd half of the meeting.

I think this may be due to the Quadrella. They choose the races that seem hardest to pick a winner in as the quaddie races( and these are usually on the second half of the card ) . Same as they used to for the superfecta when that first came in. I think in the hope a roughie wins a couple of legs of the quaddie and people see a $56,000 divi and think " I'll have a go at that " and invest more. If the faves won the quaddie all the time and the divi was ******** there'd be less investment

Interestingly , the Fav in race 8 pays a higher av. div than any other race number
It is also the race that looses the least on loss on turnover approx -5% when applied to Favs. its SR is bit less but it`s divs are higher.

The race that wins the most Favs is race No.1 but divs are usually very low.

With tipsters polls the top 2 SR is higher in the first 5 races than the last 3 , but the last 3 tend to pay heigher divs.

That'll support a theory that says most punters start doing the form from Race 1, but by Race 8 they are either tired/had enough/do it faster to finish and go to another track. Some expert handicapper once said he started from Race 8 and worked back to Race 1, as by Race 8 the favs. were more chance to be overlays.

Bhagwan - Probably gives some truth to the old saying about the last race as 'the get-out' stakes as punters go looking to find something to beat the favourite after an otherwise losing day on the punt.

Ok, say we have a reasonably proven theory, "that less favourites win the further you go into a meeting".
Does anyone know if;
(a) this theory is constant for every day of the week,
(b) this theory holds for overseas races, in particular UK & USA, and/or
(c) this theory is relevant at the trots?

I have cleaned up the last 3 Saturdays laying favs & 2nd favs from R5 onwards, so hopefully it will continue. And if no-one can answer a, b or c, then I will be spending a lot of time studying past results.