Betting by Averages
 

This is a system I have used for many years, I rarely have a losing weekend and my system can pick out some pretty good roughies.I use Best Bets to work this out with.

My system comes in 2 parts,
Part 1.
I give every type of race a rating

RACE RATINGS
G1 1
G2 2
G3 3
WFA 4
HCP 5
LR 6
C6 7
C5 8
C4 9
C3 10
C2 11
C1 12
MDN 13

Any race not included comes under handicap

I then add up the last 3 finishing positions for each horse in the race and this gives me the favourite for the race.
Example; Horse 1 4th in mdn,2nd in mdn,1st in mdn gives a score of 43
Horse 2 1st in G1,1st in G1,1st in G1 gives a score of 6

Part 2
From part 1 I then use this system to sort my best picks for the day
G: SELECTED HORSES THAT HAVE HAD ATLEAST 1 GROUP RACE IN ITS LAST 3 STARTS
W: SELECTED HORSES WHO WON ITS LAST START
T: FINISHED TOP 3 IN ATLEAST 1 OF LAST 3 STARTS
D: RACED AT THIS DISTANCE IN ATLEAST 1 OF LAST 3 STARTS(50m either side)
J: FINISHED TOP 3 WITH THIS JOCKEY IN ATLEAST 1 OF 3 STARTS

I get these choices based on averages, horses who ran the distance win 52% of the time, with the jockey 35% of the time etc.
G 14.70
W 29.41
T 23.52
D 52.94
J 35.29

1st up and horses with less than 3 starts are excluded.

So my top picks come from this system in this order DJWTG work down from there. I get an average place rate of 72%
I think I have explained this adequately, any questions.

Sounds reasonable. Seems like a fair bit of work though. Does it take long working them out?

How about you post a few selections for Saturday's races and we'll see how they go? Or perhaps post some recent results?

Handicap better than a black type, i.e. listed?

It doesn't take to long, a couple of hours on a Saturday morning.
I don't usually keep betting records on the computer, so I threw this together out of an old Best Bets. I will post my selections for this Saturday.


April 16 Top 10 picks
P1 P2
SCORE RATING
M1 ASTRODAME 15 4TH GTJ
M7 SONGS OF VIENNA 19 1ST $27.60 $6.60 GTDJ
M4 RUN AND JUMP 21 6TH WDJ
S4 STEFLARA 23 2ND $1.50 GTD
A7 PRIOR KNIGHT 24 1ST $2.90 $1.50 WTDJ
B3 SO EQUAL 24 2ND $3.70 WD
M6 OUR SMOKING JOE 25 2ND $1.60 GD
A4 GRACE AND POWER 26 WTD
B9 DIAGON DUCHESS 29 2ND $2.50 WTD
S3 CAPTAIN BAX 33 1ST $8.00 $2.70 WDJ

I like it Scott50 but think I'll go with Chuck and move LR up to 4th spot. However, I'm hoping to see your selections for tomorrow, shortly. It's all a bit arbitrary in many ways but you can't scorn a $27.60 winner completely, either!!! Good luck and I'm awaiting your picks Scotty.

I should really have expected this outcome 1 win, 2 2nds, 1 3rd. All favourites too. But to help me out today I backed Natural Blitz, nothing to do with my system he just owed me some money and I always back him.

Lin
 

Hi, Scott
Please bear with me here. I'm a bit new at this.
Could you please explain what the letters in your race ratings mean, ie, what do you mean by:
G1, G2, G3,LR,C6,C5,C4,C3,C2,C1.
Also, in your example, how did you arrive at a score of 43 for horse 1?

Thanks for your patience
Lin

The first 3 are Group races.1,2 and 3
Listed Race.
Class races 1 to 6.
You may need to do a bit of study in race classification.

Looked like the tally for number 1 came up at 3x13=39 plus 7 equals 46.