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Showing results 1 to 25 of 402
Search took 0.88 seconds. Search: Posts Made By: jfc |
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
15th June 2014, 01:24 PM
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Replies: 5
Views: 15,913
Posted By
jfc
Just ran 19 from 56 through the Binomial...Just ran 19 from 56 through the Binomial Confidence Limit Calculator. It drops the actual Strike Rate of 34%. To a lower limit of 22%. 22/34 of 155% ain't anything to crow... |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
24th September 2010, 08:55 AM
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Replies: 13
Views: 12,919
Posted By
jfc
http://statpages.org/confint.html
This...http://statpages.org/confint.html This indispensable tool shows your observed strike rate of 52/158 reduces to sustainable one of 25.65%. Suggesting a sustainable POT of 11% rather than the... |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
13th February 2010, 07:59 AM
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Replies: 71
Views: 67,101
Posted By
jfc
Betfair has designed the Premium Charge...Betfair has designed the Premium Charge specifically so that no one can get their head around it. And in trademark style, once the initial 60 week window had elapsed Betfair then changed the rules... |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
17th December 2009, 03:35 PM
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Replies: 9
Views: 8,031
Posted By
jfc
If your odds are in Column A,...If your odds are in Column A, then =HARMEAN(A:A)/COUNT(A:A) gives you the effective combined odds. And easily answers the initial question. Note that can combine more than 2 odds. |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
26th November 2009, 12:20 PM
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Replies: 15
Views: 14,206
Posted By
jfc
For UK dogs, Trap 3 boasts the significantly...For UK dogs, Trap 3 boasts the significantly highest Win strike rate. And is unquestionably the the worst Lay. |
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Forum: General Topics
16th October 2009, 12:44 PM
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Replies: 1
Views: 8,804
Posted By
jfc
A reasonable topic that interests mePost deleted. Reposting what was deleted by moderation. Have 4 day's suspension to rethink your posting style. Last edited by Moderator 3 : Today at 10:21 AM. <!-- / edit note --> It is out of... |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
16th October 2009, 09:44 AM
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Replies: 2
Views: 5,884
Posted By
jfc
aka "dual acceptors" which are quite...aka "dual acceptors" which are quite googleable http://www.racenet.com.au/updates.asp?venue=Goulburn&mdate=2009-10-16 |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
11th October 2009, 07:46 AM
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Replies: 11
Views: 9,741
Posted By
jfc
On these figures the $150 a day claim may more...On these figures the $150 a day claim may more realistically be described as: "Risk $600 per race to win $23 a day". So $150 a day would require risking ~$3,600 per race. Wonder what impact that... |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
7th October 2009, 07:36 AM
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Replies: 9
Views: 8,500
Posted By
jfc
Number of winners is more relevant than number of...Number of winners is more relevant than number of runs, but the Confidence Tool is still superior. Esentially you should start betting as soon as the system passes the confidence test - providing... |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
6th October 2009, 03:37 PM
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Replies: 9
Views: 8,500
Posted By
jfc
While the actual strike rate suggests...While the actual strike rate suggests profitability there's no point in rejecting the system. So just keep testing. But don't think of betting until it clearly passes the Confidence Tool. |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
6th October 2009, 11:17 AM
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Replies: 9
Views: 8,500
Posted By
jfc
Simply using a Binomial Confidence Limits...Simply using a Binomial Confidence Limits calculator would show: 46/176 reduces to a strike rate of 19.81%. So even at an average div of 4.94 your system would be considered unprofitable long... |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
6th October 2009, 11:16 AM
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Replies: 9
Views: 8,500
Posted By
jfc
That is plain wrong.
It should be average price...That is plain wrong. It should be average price of winners only. |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
18th November 2008, 11:54 AM
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Replies: 22
Views: 24,256
Posted By
jfc
Full Kelly. Fractional Kelly is only for those...Full Kelly. Fractional Kelly is only for those who don't understand what Kelly means. Hammers' observed strike rate of 31.3% is 305/976 statpages.org/confint.html Feed that in to the confidence... |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
18th November 2008, 07:52 AM
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Replies: 22
Views: 24,256
Posted By
jfc
No one here has managed to provide the correct...No one here has managed to provide the correct answer. Which is: Not only should you be betting this now with Kelly Criterion staking, but you should have started around bet 160. This question... |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
10th November 2008, 06:32 AM
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Replies: 17
Views: 10,981
Posted By
jfc
The formula for outlays on the A & B Savers...The formula for outlays on the A & B Savers is easy. But there is a general formula for the proportions to outlay on the plungers. Enter their odds in column A. And get the proportions with this... |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
9th November 2008, 02:10 PM
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Replies: 17
Views: 10,981
Posted By
jfc
A: 4.00 25% Save
B: 4.60 22% Save
C: 5.00 20%...A: 4.00 25% Save B: 4.60 22% Save C: 5.00 20% Plunge D: 6.50 15% Plunge Outlays on Savers: A: 12.50 = 50 * 25% B: 11.00 = 50 * 22% |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
10th October 2008, 03:50 PM
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Replies: 71
Views: 67,101
Posted By
jfc
Further to the fanciful notion that this charge...Further to the fanciful notion that this charge is somehow good, because it will be easier to win once the big winners have moved elsewhere. In contrast to normal winners, these big ones will... |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
3rd October 2008, 02:24 PM
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Replies: 71
Views: 67,101
Posted By
jfc
This drama shows little sign of...This drama shows little sign of subsiding. Various players are now detailing their charges on the Betfair Forum, revealing the difference between Betfair's claims and reality. How about this... |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
1st October 2008, 01:32 PM
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Replies: 71
Views: 67,101
Posted By
jfc
Onto the fanciful notion that this charge is...Onto the fanciful notion that this charge is somehow good, because it will be easier to win once the big winners have moved elsewhere. This flies in the face of well proven and documented strategy... |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
1st October 2008, 12:55 PM
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Replies: 71
Views: 67,101
Posted By
jfc
So if I drop dead tonight, I'll still be...So if I drop dead tonight, I'll still be considered an active player for another 729 days. |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
1st October 2008, 12:51 PM
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Replies: 71
Views: 67,101
Posted By
jfc
In the just concluded Waterhouse case, the judge...In the just concluded Waterhouse case, the judge spent a massive amount of resources to figure out what "publish" means. Imagine the amount of legal resources required to determine whether a... |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
1st October 2008, 05:32 AM
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Replies: 71
Views: 67,101
Posted By
jfc
A number of flaming comments. Post deleted....A number of flaming comments. Post deleted. Moderator. |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
1st October 2008, 02:51 AM
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Replies: 71
Views: 67,101
Posted By
jfc
Consider this gem from Betfair support (from the...Consider this gem from Betfair support (from the allowance thread at the Betfair forum). "However, the 1000 allowance would have already come into play around 59 weeks ago." Now if this is true, it... |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
30th September 2008, 05:21 PM
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Replies: 71
Views: 67,101
Posted By
jfc
To save some time for all, here is Betfair's real...To save some time for all, here is Betfair's real reason: Charming. "Servicing customers also includes the cost of replacing liquidity that has been taken out by customers with an extremely high... |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
30th September 2008, 04:17 PM
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Replies: 71
Views: 67,101
Posted By
jfc
Note also that it costs Betfair next to nothing...Note also that it costs Betfair next to nothing to service me. I avoid having contact with it. That is I never now contact its service segments or managers because I know how slim the chances are... |
| Showing results 1 to 25 of 402 |
