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Search: Posts Made By: demodocus
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 26th October 2021, 08:07 AM
Replies: 97
Views: 77,487
Posted By demodocus
The problem, as I see it, is that we're no longer...

The problem, as I see it, is that we're no longer up against our friendly local bookie who was happy to adjust the odds for his 'friends' and 'slip' them on a newbie.
Now we're up against the...
Forum: General Topics 3rd August 2019, 09:03 AM
Replies: 18
Views: 120,643
Posted By demodocus
The more I play with the stats the more i realise...

The more I play with the stats the more i realise that the price is the indicator of success.

This table looks at races (287,983) and uses TAB price with Fav. Rank to generate WSR's. The selected...
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 19th June 2019, 09:53 AM
Replies: 132
Views: 204,773
Posted By demodocus
18% WSR

18% WSR
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 10th December 2018, 08:24 AM
Replies: 120
Views: 220,693
Posted By demodocus
Let's try something that stands up. Country...

Let's try something that stands up.

Country Trax. 8 - 14 Field

First Starter .... Favourite @ TAB +/- $2.60

Take $2.90+ anywhere else that you can get it. :-)
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 15th November 2018, 11:44 AM
Replies: 94
Views: 219,082
Posted By demodocus
Evidence ???

Evidence ???
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 25th September 2018, 09:25 AM
Replies: 12
Views: 37,271
Posted By demodocus
ORIGINAL ALL races [40k+] gives a POT result of...

ORIGINAL
ALL races [40k+] gives a POT result of (15.75%) .... WSR 21.41% $3.94

Sat Metro [16.5K+] gives a POT result of (15.26%)...... WSR 19.74% $4.42

Moving on to 3rd up ........... all...
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 10th August 2018, 09:31 AM
Replies: 12
Views: 37,271
Posted By demodocus
.... and so we look at 20k+ qualifiers 2k won...

.... and so we look at 20k+ qualifiers
2k won @$1.18 (on average TAB)

Doesn't add up.
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 19th July 2018, 05:41 AM
Replies: 66
Views: 124,745
Posted By demodocus
A sensible place to start. Sprint race,...

A sensible place to start.

Sprint race, established rider, AND two other Ratings agencies "rate" the horse.

Then you refine their estimates. If it works, why not.
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 17th June 2018, 04:41 AM
Replies: 94
Views: 219,082
Posted By demodocus
Quite right UB, my apogolies .... what I was...

Quite right UB, my apogolies .... what I was trying to refer to was the price that Betfair includes in its' results data .... not the Betfair SP which is a totally different animal as you point...
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 16th June 2018, 04:34 AM
Replies: 94
Views: 219,082
Posted By demodocus
There is a problem with using Betfair prices. The...

There is a problem with using Betfair prices. The SP doesn't usually match the price that the horse was actually bet at ..... it's simply the 'last price matched'. If you look under the LHS tab on...
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 16th June 2017, 07:21 AM
Replies: 25
Views: 35,989
Posted By demodocus
So, using exactly the same data and conditions I...

So, using exactly the same data and conditions I had a look at SUM of last 2 starts Beaten Dist rather than Place.

<=1 ..... 18.63%
2 .......... 16.23
3 .......... 15.31
4 .......... 14.04
5...
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 16th June 2017, 06:53 AM
Replies: 25
Views: 35,989
Posted By demodocus
Wandering into the realms of fantasy. Here's a...

Wandering into the realms of fantasy.

Here's a quick go using a sample of 288,224 as follows:-

Today's Going = Good
Distance <=1650m.
DSLS <=30
Field 8 - 14
Prev. Races >=4
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 15th June 2017, 10:08 AM
Replies: 25
Views: 35,989
Posted By demodocus
Long term WSR =19.7%, mostly favourites. :-)

Long term WSR =19.7%, mostly favourites. :-)
Forum: General Topics 10th June 2017, 06:49 AM
Replies: 4
Views: 12,306
Posted By demodocus
U/B I'd really appreciate anything like this (in...

U/B I'd really appreciate anything like this (in .xls or .qpw or dbf format) that you can zip and send to demodocus_at_iinet.com.au.
Forum: General Topics 9th June 2017, 08:00 AM
Replies: 4
Views: 12,306
Posted By demodocus
Worst System Ever .... Data

Here’s a wee request for those of you who view punting as an interesting mathematical exercise (as I do).

In the Forum “worst system ever” I showed that it is possible to make a profit (24th April...
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 22nd April 2017, 07:22 AM
Replies: 13
Views: 23,045
Posted By demodocus
Perhaps a little strange but not beyond the...

Perhaps a little strange but not beyond the bounds of possibility.
Over 15 years it's (System 2) delivered +/- 25% WSR at AvTab of +/- $3.60 POT -5.5% but all dependant on DSLS.
The problem for the...
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 9th March 2017, 08:58 AM
Replies: 4
Views: 9,527
Posted By demodocus
Whoopee dooooo!! EXACTLY. There is very little...

Whoopee dooooo!! EXACTLY.

There is very little difference in results from Country Maidens to Group1 races.

8 -14 starters ALL Going Fav results

Maidens ....... 34.10% $2.62
Group .......... 33.05%...
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 7th March 2017, 09:06 AM
Replies: 9
Views: 11,045
Posted By demodocus
Mornin' o bronzed one :-), Looking at Top 4...

Mornin' o bronzed one :-),

Looking at Top 4 ....

Using the .xls example and going for a 72% WSR (AND remembering that it's TAB results) we get a long term result of $1.18 as opposed to a B/E need...
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 7th March 2017, 07:30 AM
Replies: 9
Views: 11,045
Posted By demodocus
Looking At The Dutchmen

The other day an unhappy chappy on this board remarked that nowadays it was necessary to bet two horses in a race in order to achieve satisfactory results.
This, of course, leads to the heinous...
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 5th January 2017, 09:34 AM
Replies: 44
Views: 95,909
Posted By demodocus
Neil, something to think about ........ There...

Neil, something to think about ........

There needs to be some incorporation of Field Size in your assessment.

EXAMPLE USING...
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 18th November 2016, 07:54 AM
Replies: 3
Views: 9,474
Posted By demodocus
I had a look at your query and using the much...

I had a look at your query and using the much maligned TAB prices ....

Taking 395,909 horses in races of 8 to 14 starters (and NO other criteria) we find that :

Prices of $1.50 to $5.00 produce an...
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 14th December 2015, 01:19 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 9,950
Posted By demodocus
There's a whole more on the succeeding page :-)

There's a whole more on the succeeding page :-)
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 14th December 2015, 05:48 AM
Replies: 5
Views: 9,950
Posted By demodocus
Fav results

Ocho, I posted a series of .pdf tables on this earlier this year on the Forum. If you can't find them contact me on atreusatiprimusdotcomdotau and I'll see what can be done.
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 9th November 2015, 08:02 AM
Replies: 10
Views: 16,586
Posted By demodocus
Faves & Going

ALL

Good* ..... 32.47% ... (146,355)
Soft* ....... 31,05% ... ( 61,354)
Heavy* .... 29.69% ... ( 17,944)

12 - 14 starters ONLY

Good* ...... 29.19% .. 45,386
Soft* ........ 27.40% .. 20,364
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 9th August 2015, 09:59 AM
Replies: 14
Views: 17,021
Posted By demodocus
Smile Nicely put. The sad thing is that WHATEVER the...

Nicely put.

The sad thing is that WHATEVER the pairing is (Fav1 to Fav 99) as a Dutch with Fav 2 to Fav 99 using TAB odds we're going to lose. Just do the numbers.

The Race / horse choices are...
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