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Showing results 1 to 25 of 59
Search took 0.09 seconds. Search: Posts Made By: demodocus |
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
26th October 2021, 09:07 AM
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Replies: 97
Views: 181,516
Posted By
demodocus
The problem, as I see it, is that we're no longer...The problem, as I see it, is that we're no longer up against our friendly local bookie who was happy to adjust the odds for his 'friends' and 'slip' them on a newbie. Now we're up against the... |
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Forum: General Topics
3rd August 2019, 10:03 AM
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Replies: 18
Views: 134,152
Posted By
demodocus
The more I play with the stats the more i realise...The more I play with the stats the more i realise that the price is the indicator of success. This table looks at races (287,983) and uses TAB price with Fav. Rank to generate WSR's. The selected... |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
19th June 2019, 10:53 AM
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Replies: 132
Views: 325,333
Posted By
demodocus
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
10th December 2018, 09:24 AM
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Replies: 120
Views: 356,199
Posted By
demodocus
Let's try something that stands up.
Country...Let's try something that stands up. Country Trax. 8 - 14 Field First Starter .... Favourite @ TAB +/- $2.60 Take $2.90+ anywhere else that you can get it. :-) |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
15th November 2018, 12:44 PM
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Replies: 95
Views: 466,632
Posted By
demodocus
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
25th September 2018, 10:25 AM
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Replies: 12
Views: 60,142
Posted By
demodocus
ORIGINAL
ALL races [40k+] gives a POT result of...ORIGINAL ALL races [40k+] gives a POT result of (15.75%) .... WSR 21.41% $3.94 Sat Metro [16.5K+] gives a POT result of (15.26%)...... WSR 19.74% $4.42 Moving on to 3rd up ........... all... |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
10th August 2018, 10:31 AM
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Replies: 12
Views: 60,142
Posted By
demodocus
.... and so we look at 20k+ qualifiers
2k won....... and so we look at 20k+ qualifiers 2k won @$1.18 (on average TAB) Doesn't add up. |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
19th July 2018, 06:41 AM
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Replies: 66
Views: 233,474
Posted By
demodocus
A sensible place to start.
Sprint race,...A sensible place to start. Sprint race, established rider, AND two other Ratings agencies "rate" the horse. Then you refine their estimates. If it works, why not. |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
17th June 2018, 05:41 AM
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Replies: 95
Views: 466,632
Posted By
demodocus
Quite right UB, my apogolies .... what I was...Quite right UB, my apogolies .... what I was trying to refer to was the price that Betfair includes in its' results data .... not the Betfair SP which is a totally different animal as you point... |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
16th June 2018, 05:34 AM
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Replies: 95
Views: 466,632
Posted By
demodocus
There is a problem with using Betfair prices. The...There is a problem with using Betfair prices. The SP doesn't usually match the price that the horse was actually bet at ..... it's simply the 'last price matched'. If you look under the LHS tab on... |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
16th June 2017, 08:21 AM
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Replies: 25
Views: 50,495
Posted By
demodocus
So, using exactly the same data and conditions I...So, using exactly the same data and conditions I had a look at SUM of last 2 starts Beaten Dist rather than Place. <=1 ..... 18.63% 2 .......... 16.23 3 .......... 15.31 4 .......... 14.04 5... |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
16th June 2017, 07:53 AM
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Replies: 25
Views: 50,495
Posted By
demodocus
Wandering into the realms of fantasy.
Here's a...Wandering into the realms of fantasy. Here's a quick go using a sample of 288,224 as follows:- Today's Going = Good Distance <=1650m. DSLS <=30 Field 8 - 14 Prev. Races >=4 |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
15th June 2017, 11:08 AM
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Replies: 25
Views: 50,495
Posted By
demodocus
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Forum: General Topics
10th June 2017, 07:49 AM
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Replies: 4
Views: 17,857
Posted By
demodocus
U/B I'd really appreciate anything like this (in...U/B I'd really appreciate anything like this (in .xls or .qpw or dbf format) that you can zip and send to demodocus_at_iinet.com.au. |
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Forum: General Topics
9th June 2017, 09:00 AM
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Replies: 4
Views: 17,857
Posted By
demodocus
Worst System Ever .... DataHere’s a wee request for those of you who view punting as an interesting mathematical exercise (as I do). In the Forum “worst system ever” I showed that it is possible to make a profit (24th April... |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
22nd April 2017, 08:22 AM
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Replies: 13
Views: 33,358
Posted By
demodocus
Perhaps a little strange but not beyond the...Perhaps a little strange but not beyond the bounds of possibility. Over 15 years it's (System 2) delivered +/- 25% WSR at AvTab of +/- $3.60 POT -5.5% but all dependant on DSLS. The problem for the... |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
9th March 2017, 09:58 AM
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Replies: 4
Views: 14,231
Posted By
demodocus
Whoopee dooooo!! EXACTLY.
There is very little...Whoopee dooooo!! EXACTLY. There is very little difference in results from Country Maidens to Group1 races. 8 -14 starters ALL Going Fav results Maidens ....... 34.10% $2.62 Group .......... 33.05%... |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
7th March 2017, 10:06 AM
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Replies: 9
Views: 18,588
Posted By
demodocus
Mornin' o bronzed one :-),
Looking at Top 4...Mornin' o bronzed one :-), Looking at Top 4 .... Using the .xls example and going for a 72% WSR (AND remembering that it's TAB results) we get a long term result of $1.18 as opposed to a B/E need... |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
7th March 2017, 08:30 AM
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Replies: 9
Views: 18,588
Posted By
demodocus
Looking At The DutchmenThe other day an unhappy chappy on this board remarked that nowadays it was necessary to bet two horses in a race in order to achieve satisfactory results. This, of course, leads to the heinous... |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
5th January 2017, 10:34 AM
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Replies: 44
Views: 160,705
Posted By
demodocus
Neil, something to think about ........
There...Neil, something to think about ........ There needs to be some incorporation of Field Size in your assessment. EXAMPLE USING... |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
18th November 2016, 08:54 AM
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Replies: 3
Views: 14,409
Posted By
demodocus
I had a look at your query and using the much...I had a look at your query and using the much maligned TAB prices .... Taking 395,909 horses in races of 8 to 14 starters (and NO other criteria) we find that : Prices of $1.50 to $5.00 produce an... |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
14th December 2015, 02:19 PM
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Replies: 5
Views: 18,477
Posted By
demodocus
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
14th December 2015, 06:48 AM
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Replies: 5
Views: 18,477
Posted By
demodocus
Fav resultsOcho, I posted a series of .pdf tables on this earlier this year on the Forum. If you can't find them contact me on atreusatiprimusdotcomdotau and I'll see what can be done. |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
9th November 2015, 09:02 AM
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Replies: 10
Views: 26,959
Posted By
demodocus
Faves & GoingALL Good* ..... 32.47% ... (146,355) Soft* ....... 31,05% ... ( 61,354) Heavy* .... 29.69% ... ( 17,944) 12 - 14 starters ONLY Good* ...... 29.19% .. 45,386 Soft* ........ 27.40% .. 20,364 |
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Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems
9th August 2015, 10:59 AM
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Replies: 14
Views: 30,396
Posted By
demodocus
Nicely put.
The sad thing is that WHATEVER the...Nicely put. The sad thing is that WHATEVER the pairing is (Fav1 to Fav 99) as a Dutch with Fav 2 to Fav 99 using TAB odds we're going to lose. Just do the numbers. The Race / horse choices are... |
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