10th December 2005, 11:28 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Port Macquarie
Posts: 1,694
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Sportz
XPT,
I assume that was aimed at me. I'm sorry, but you seem to have misunderstood me. I did not say that those two horses were 'good things' or even that they were his best two rides. I simply said that those two races were in my opinion clearly the best betting races of the day and that Greg Ryan's rides were my top picks in those races.
I like to cut down on the races I bet on. At Mudgee yesterday, I didn't even consider the first 4 races. I DID consider races 5 & 6, but in the end, I just wasn't as confident about those races as I was about races 7 & 8. I've said before that I like backing Ryan in country cups and in the last race of the day, so those were the first two races I looked at. If Ryan had been on some donkey with no chance, I wouldn't have backed him, but when I went through those races, Paper Boy and Shepishir came out on top and I was quite confident about them. I must point out however, that they were not my only bets. In R7, I also had a saver on Mister Daylight and in R8, I did likewise with Mia Amanda.
I certainly wouldn't advise anyone back Ryan in every single race. Going on the figures I've seen, I think you'd make a loss of about 15-20% or something like that. Paul Harvey and perhaps Darren Beadman are the only two top jockeys that you could back every time and have a chance of ending up in front. As for Sunday, I haven't looked at them yet, but if he's on a bunch of no-hopers or odds-on chances, then of course I won't be betting on them. As I said, you shouldn't just blindly bet on him without studying them first to see if he has a genuine chance.
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Nah not specifically aimed at you... my point is that his rides are just about always in the market, and I am unable to see how anyone can distinguish which are good and which are not so good... other than using prices as a guide.. If you set a floor price of say 5$ for a Ryan ride you would have gone out backwards at Mudgee (assuming NSW TAB prices) Had you set $4 as your floor you may have shown a profit.. My point is that the winners he rode yesterday, were favs, as his rides are lots of times.. and we know backing favs sends us to the red ink..would it be fair to suggest that we back G Ryan on favs only? I wouldnt think so, because then you miss the odd good priced winner he rides.. and the mob can be wrong and are wrong 60% of the time.. he rode one at cessnock a couple of weeks ago at better than 16$ (from memory).
Again I say, it is very difficult to say which are his better rides of the day, because they are all good according to the mob. Shepishir is a case in question, I could not seperate it from Mia Amanda and the 4.. It won and Mia Amanda ran 2nd.. but in my opinion both were unders.. They should have been about 9/2 the field.. And yet you said it was a good betting race to back Ryan... when you are getting 9/2 (5.5) there is a fair amount of risk involved... I would have thought Pants Man was the horse to load up on if you were backing Ryan.. granted it was odds on, but it was close to a good thing as evidenced by the price.. and that it won..I dunno I might be wrong here..
The other bloke to back is Robbo (when he isnt having a holiday).. But when do you back him? He is probably the 2nd best jockey in the land... I would suggest maybe a Saturday at Kembla/Newcastle when he is riding for the top trainers, just a suggestion, forget Beadman, he is just about always on genuine winning chances, and still mangages to get knocked off every now n then (too often for my liking)
Following jockeys is wrought with danger.. That was the main thrust of my post and most if not all will send you into negative territory, over the long run.. even the good ones... Harvey may well be the exception...
Don't forget that I prefaced my original post by saying that I consider G RYAN the best in the land |