10th December 2005, 11:35 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,415
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Jockey Ability
I've done a small study of the leading sydney jockeys on the premiership table and come up with some interesting stats.....
Jockeys likely to ride well on favourites
1. J Penza
2. R M Quinn
3. J Ford
4. D Beadman
5. Z Purton
6. H Bowman
7. G Boss
In that order
Jockeys likely to make a mistake
1. J Bowman
2. B Stanley
3. L Henry
4. D Langridge
5. K Fujii
6. J Innes
7. L Cassidy / L Beasley
8. D Beasley
In that order
So let's look at the favourites at Rosehill today....
Doubloon H Bowman unplaced
Admirelle D Beasley unplaced
Windon G Boss 2nd
Malcolm R M Quinn Won $1.50 $1.10
Grandiloquent R M Quinn unplaced
Radetzky March H Bowman Won $3.60 $1.70
So what if we don't bet on the horses where the jockey is likely to botch the ride and only bet on jockeys likely to get it home....
Doubloon H Bowman unplaced
Windon G Boss 2nd
Malcolm R M Quinn Won $1.50 $1.10
Grandiloquent R M Quinn unplaced
Radetzky March H Bowman Won $3.60 $1.70
5 bets 2 wins for return of $5.10
As against the statistically poor jocks
1 bets for return $0.00
But this does not prove anything, so let's look at last weekend
Cheeky Choice L Cassidy 2nd
Kaliningrad H Bowman unplaced
Century Serb H Bowman Won $2.70 $1.40
Appalachian H Bowman unplaced
Le Bron L Beasley Won $2.40 $1.40
Our Apache L Cassidy 2nd
Good Jockey
3 bets 1 win -0.30
Poor Jockey
3 bets 1 win -0.70
Last two Saturday's
Good Jockey 8 bets 3 wins return -0.20 37.50% S/R
Poor Jockey 4 bets 1 win -1.70 25.00% S/R
Of course the challenge is to obtain value, but I know who I'd like riding my favourite and who I'd pass on!
Although the above data is only examples of two meetings, the ratings come from all rides in my database.
Now why does it matter?
Because my Best Bets are showing a very small loss, and I believe that this could be greatly improved by sticking to the best jockeys.
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