11th December 2005, 01:05 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,432
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moeee,
I'm interested mate, keep at it, you are attempting something that not many are able to make successful.
The fact that you are posting your method "warts and all" is to be commended, not derided.
Have you read greg's punting page? This may enlighten you a little further or give you more ideas. I can't post the link, but a Google will find it.
I believe it is possible to use track records, but only with adjustments. A track record at Geelong is not the same as a track record at Sale, you might make an adjustment for the track variants.
The main problem one faces is the sh*t happens factor with greyhounds. Dogs get carted off the track or wiped out, through no fault of their own.
I reckon you might look at early splits rather than race time and do pace ratings, the likely leader.
How many times has the dog led in the first split?
A dog that can ping out from the boxes has the huge advantage regardless of actual race time, BUT must have the class to win.
If you can pin down the likely leaders, that have a high win strike rate, you could probably rate from there.
Instead of looking for dogs that led all the way to win last start, you should probably look for dogs that have a high strike rate of leading and winning, but did NOT win last time out, that's where the value is I think.
It's extremely hard to find value with the greyhounds, but you will when there is a short priced favourite that is vulnerable. I.E. it won it's last start well, but there was a skirmish which gave him a clear run, and normally he would not have got the lead.
Just some of my thoughts.
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