Thread: The DART System
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  #26  
Old 12th December 2005, 10:20 AM
moeee moeee is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 5,359
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If it looks like a horse and walks like a horse,then it is probably a horse.
The only way to judge whether the ratings being outputted are accurate,is to record the results.
And the sample has to be large.I CAN'T WAIT!
So I have decided to rate races where I have some sort of idea of the main chances and approximate prices using the Watchdog formguide assessed prices.
Then I can compare the ratings suggestion of the market.

GEELONG Race 8.

1. TUSKEN RAIDER -5.5 5% $20
2. FLYING EOS -6.8 3% $33
3. DYNA SHERLOCK -5.9 4% $23
4. PEDRO ALLEN -4.3 8% $12
5. SCRATCHED
6. WANNADOO Winner 45% $2.20
7. FIRING ZONE -3 13% $7.30
8. ROUGE FOX -2.2 20% $5.20

Okay.So looking at these,there are 2 concerns.
The white has had a lot of success in Queensland and is having its 1st start here.Did I under estimate its ability?.It left the scene 2 months ago with ordinary form.Will the trainer have it near its peak?Just in case it runs its best let's adjust its rating.

And the other query is will the PINK be able to run out the distance.
I am having a lot of trouble with dogs running well over short distances and failing over further.This is mainly due to my yardstick of using track records being wrong.Let's adjust here as well.

The chances are now.

1. TUSKEN RAIDER $21
2. FLYING EOS $36
3. DYNA SHERLOCK $23 down to $6.10
4. PEDRO ALLEN $12.40
5. SCRATCHED
6. WANNADOO $2.20 out to $2.40
7. FIRING ZONE $8.00
8. ROUGE FOX $5.20 out to $7.10

I find these a very comfortable set of prices.
So the betting goes like this:

TRIFECTA
6/3,7,8/3,4,7,8 - cost is $4.50

And the Green for $20 a win at over $3.20 but will take any odds.
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