Mark,

Say you offer to lay Northerly at $1.25 around 20 minutes before jump time as was his price yesterday. How can you guarantee the following;

a) someone will back it. It blew from $1.12 to $1.35 on track and was a similar drifter with Betfair. The $1.25 on the bet side of the screen that you saw was very quickly replaced with $1.28 then $1.30 then $1.32. The $1.25 soon slid off the end of the screen not covered. Just because its there doesn't mean someone covers it.

b) what if it firms? Once you have layed at $1.25 you can't bet at less than that obviously.

Becareful said he backed Grand City for substantially more than he wanted to on the basis that he would lay it back at a shorter price. He made a huge assumption that the horse would firm. I assume the $4.43 was achieved by betting say $1000 @ 3.85, laying $800 @3.50. It wins you win 850, it loses you lose 200, less commission = around $4.43. Your bet in this example is that of a $200 punter as that was your loss risk. If Grand City blew you placed a $1000 bet. If your answer is that you knew it would firm, then you have an ability that few share. Putting 5 times your stake on a horse at under its best price (which is what you have done if Grand City - like 80% of runners do, blows) then you have broken every money management rule in the book.

Looking forward to being told I'm wrong.