La Mer, I don't doubt (well, maybe I do**** that some "lucky" punters can win betting the shorties (your post 62**** but it's hard to tell what to make of it when the "stats" are presented without the individual results and bets. For example your average win price of $3.25 over 34 winners from 87 bets (= $110 return**** could be 33 x $2 winners and 1 x $44 winner (also $110 return****, could it not?? The single longshot COULD then be the only winning factor(or not****.
I'm not saying this IS the case but who knows? You DO, but not us. As is well known, stats are very slippery things and don't tell us THIS! See that excellent thread about the "two dead ends" for more!!!!!!!! Have you broken the POT down into individual POTs at certain SP/Tote bet prices,for example? If, of your 87 bets 33 ONLY were on $2 chances (100% success from above example**** and 54 on $44 shots (failure from above example**** then the conclusion would be "the shorter the better"!!! This is NOT an attack but just a warning to anyone contemplating statistical approaches to BE CAREFUL AND CAUTIOUS. As you can see the raw stats COULD be based on two totally different results (ie in one the Longie saved the day ;in the other the host of shorties**** though the temptation to jump to conclusions (ie the AVERAGE winning price was short, therefore the short-priced horses were the cause**** is strong. Anyhow, I was referring specifically to the exposed tipping or system selections often presented on this forum, which we CAN follow. How often have I read HERE that we must be wary of the occasional big priced winner distorting the POT etc etc?? IS THIS TRUE?? I say NO! P57 out.
|