Hi KV. I'm not so sure about this. As you know I'm not a stats/ratings fan but Woof does say in both posts that we have to "do our handicapping" and then make comparisons. He also mentions the point that a lot forget; if we ALL agree on the fav etc etc then we are all going to get small reward when THAT fav wins (ie we MUST disagree before skinning them****. Problem is, that when we DISAGREE, we are jumping immediately to the conclusion that it is we who are "closer" to the truth than the rest. The implication being that our assessment of say 3-1 is "better" than the crowd's 5-1 which gives us the edge in taking the crowd's "foolish" $6 offer and also the edge IN REVERSE in Trifectas (ie the crowd are throwing up "unders" on the bad ROI Trifectas, so WE scoop up the "overs" trifectas****. Or am I misreading this?
Plus I'm a little confused about the whole section in the second post. Take "wager 1" to avoid; 234/1/234 is the Public's 2nd 3rd 4th fav to win with Top Fav to come second and 2nd/3rd/4th fav in third place, but what is the (345/1/345**** after it and where does that come from?? Thanks for your patience.