15th December 2005, 03:36 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 696
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question
Quote:
Originally Posted by punter57
I have a question concerning "handicapping" (be that the dogs or horses or whatever****, which I'm hoping you might clarify for me (or anyone else, of course****. It is this: since all the "facts" are in the guides etc how can the individual handicapper/ratings fan/form student see what the others DON'T??? And regularly enough to consistently win?? What I men is; if we all give importance to times/boxes/finishing positions etc etc then how will we sort ourselves out from the mass of punters/bookies doing likewise??
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Most ppl don't use all the "facts" within the formguides, my own handicapping is based on LTD Form, it take a major shift in thinking from using so called "Recent" form to using LTD formlines. most "highs an lows" within a runners formline is usually a function of Class, Distance and Box/Barrier draws , in another thread on this forum somewhere, I have detailed my analysis on Recent form as opposed to LTD form.
I only use 4 or 5 Factors/Variables "that the public can read in the formguides" to get my first tier Sims, once I have these probablilties "these are the ones that show the least variation or smoothest variation thru all the rankings when compared to the Public" I then re-handicap using Factors not readily disclosed in the formguides, then compare both sets to find races that might be playable (which is around 600 races approx per week, within aust).
I Classify races based on the Main Factor that the Public identified in each Favourite, then its a matter of doing some cluster analysis on each grouping to find races that have horizontal profit profiles.
I have also mentioned on numerous occasions using Standard Deviation as a TOOL, but most would ignore this valuable tool and so on..
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