G'day all,

Looks a great card tomorrow, i can't wait

Race 1 - Given that this appears a pretty weak field again, i can't see any reason why Radar O'Reilly can't win again. Has been running well at this track/distance lately, and while he wasn't overly impressive last time, he got the job done. Runobit has draw perfectly and was a good run 2 back behind Perette. Can figure here with some pace on. Hanalei Bay is a tough customer to catch, but on best form would certainly figure.

Race 2 - Good 3yo race. Not alot of speed here, which is a concern, but i've settled on My Son Day. Has been running well lately, and will probably be a better price than Vitruvian. Having said that, Vitruvian was an eye-catcher last time, and has won well (in good time) over this course and distance before - he's a great chance with Colless engaged. Katsidis may make the pace here and is a quality horse, perhaps may not be wound up here though - i'd say hes heading to the millions.

Race 3 - First of the 2yo races here. Prey for Peace was a great effort last time and the extra 200m looks ideal. As always its a guessing game as to who'll handle the distance and who won't, but she'll do me at this stage. Bella Heart was green as anything last time, but there is obviously potential there, and you can't leave here out totally. Tantra, the Waterhouse runner, should be included, but will probably be a bit short for my liking.

Race 4 - Like Special Offer here. I think this is a really nice galloper. Was green on debut aswell, but hit the line hard and the extra 200m will be no obstacle at all. Just hope hes not too short . Balbora got to the line reasonably well last time and the extra distance will help here too. Mel has done nothing wrong so far, and can probably take up a forward position here and give them something to catch.

Race 5 - Tornado Alley should win this i'd say. From the 2 alley, i can't see many of these having the speed to go with him, and despite the big weight, i think he's just too good. A Little Naughty has good form behind her, and won't be far off them at the end - the nice alley and Colless helps no end. General Patton must've annoyed the barrier angels because he has again draw the carpark and will probably find himself deep (for the 4th consecutive run), but if he manages to get in, he'll test Tornado Alley.

Race 6 - Countess Bathory has been given all the favours here, and i think she can win. Barrier 3, plenty of speed, great first up record, great form last campaign - this all bodes well for a good first up run here. Don't know what went wrong with persuades last time, but she can do better here with a senior jockey on. Shysu was dominant last time, but i have her 3 deep here, unless she presses forward and leads. If she does, though, i think they'll get her at the end - theres just too much other speed.

Race 7 - If Willy Leica has recovered from his last run, i think he'll go close. His runs last campaign in the 3yo races were superb and if he can reproduce any of those, he'll be tough to stop. High Academy is a very nice horse, and from the 1 is a definite chance. Planagram will set the speed, and won't be far off them at the end for sure. Having said that, I went through the race and found 10 that i could back with some degree of confidence - this is a really tough race.

Race 8 - Last event. If Power and Gold is anywhere near right, i think he'll win. The draw and the top jockey have swayed my decision somewhat. Although he hasnt raced for a long while, his performances as a younger horse were great, and if he has retained that ability, he's better than most of these. Fleet Baron will get a nice run behind them here, and can go close on best figures. Algorithm was an eye-catching 4th last time in a shorter event and can go close. The fact that he has never won over 1200m is a concern, but i'm not willing to leave him out.

Tough day, there will be value everywhere. Best would be My Son Day and Tornado Alley with a value chance to High Academy.

Good luck all

Sven