jonron,

I have heard this stat many times and personally think it is about right.

The problem is splits are just one aspect of the dog getting to the first turn. Other things to look into include which way the dogs run when they gets out of the box as they tend to bump each other, the weight of the dog to see whether a check will affect it, how quick is the dog out of the box ( Quick, medium, Slow ), box bias, scratchings, position relative to other dogs, etc, etc, etc.

Also you will find most dogs which should be in the first two at the corner are very short priced. They are then checked becaue they were slow out of the box and some other dog gets to the corner first.

Good Luck