I don't know if you are/have ever won consistently on the punt Dr P, but so long as you regard studying past results (at the races, in business, in life?) as "backfitting" and therefore "bad", you are going to have problems maintaining an edge. In every thing we do, we take note of past successes and failures and try to repeat the successes; we look at what went right and what went wrong. Especially we look for the tell-tale signs (nice nautical term) which were NOT SPOKEN and NOT OBVIOUS at the time. This is the dreaded "backfitting". Most importantly; there should be no jumping to conclusions without UNDERSTANDING. To do this properly, because history doesn't repeat itself EXACTLY, you need broad paramaters AND to apply your conclusions with "discretion". Next time is not the SAME as last time ,but often enough (or sometimes more rarely) it's CLOSE.
I suspect that you are confounding BASELESS backfitting with reasoned backfitting, when you "bag" it. ie the last three Melbourne Cups were won by a jockey in red blue and white, so look for that again (only $500 for this system!!!), vs the past 50 Cups have been won by horses at 56.5Kg or less, who have won G1 or G2 events at their last start etc etc (For example). hmmm. You may STILL have plenty to choose from, but you are getting there ( now for a PRICE FILTER!!)
It can be frustrating to see longshots winning every day, not being on them and not able to explain them, either. That's normal. How come my home-garage business never took off and BILL GATES' did?? How come my little supermarket is only turning over $250,000 pa while GJ Coles (remember HE started in Sheffield, Tasmania with a little shop) is the biggest retail conglomerate in Australia? There are times Dr P when it seems that the odds are STACKED AGAINST US. Don't give up. All of us, Doctors or not, can still be winners!!! Cheers. Go the "backfitters"!!!!
PS I don't know if you're starting to sound like ME, but maybe you are more '"aware" than previously, of certain things (I do NOT say it's because of anything you've read in THIS FORUM).