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Originally Posted by punter57
This is the dreaded "backfitting". Most importantly; there should be no jumping to conclusions without UNDERSTANDING. To do this properly, because history doesn't repeat itself EXACTLY, you need broad paramaters AND to apply your conclusions with "discretion". Next time is not the SAME as last time ,but often enough (or sometimes more rarely) it's CLOSE.
I suspect that you are confounding BASELESS backfitting with reasoned backfitting,
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Gee...thanks for the advice p76. And just to show you that I'm really listening we're going make some much needed alterations to the Dreamweavers.
First of all in the results quoted above there were no less than three 100/1 +++ pops winning accounting for a bloated 180 units of net profit. To back a 100/1+++ winner you need a miracle - I don't believe in miracles (especially at the races) so all contenders showing more than NSW Tab SP > $100.0 are eliminated.
Since we are getting rid of the extremes then let's not ask our Dreamweavers to cover more/less than 400 metres from last start distance. Anything but Saturday metro races are out and so are those starters attempting to back up with anything less than a seven day break.
Dreamweaver rules:
Adel Bris Melb Saturday metro only (no Sydney)
4, 5 and 6yo only
Field size 10-24
Eliminate last start winners
Eliminate runners without at least a seven day break
Eliminate runners with WIN% less than 10%
Career starts 10-40
Eliminate runners not weighted to carry at least 2.0 kg less from last start set weight
max distance rise/drop 400 metres from last start
NSW TAB >$21.0 but less than $100.0
Results from July 2001 through end October 2005 are:
races 1004
bets 1433
wins 57
SR% 4%
P/L 712 units
PoT 49.7%
ave div. $37.65
Sydney yields -56 units LoT 12%
Removing the price filter from Dreamweavers results:
races 2045
bets 4406
wins 316
SR% 7.2%
P/L +643 units
PoT 14.6%
The price band $11.0 - $20.9 yields LoT 5.9%
The price band $0 - $10.0 yields LoT 21.7%
Fill your boots Dreamweavers.
PSS Don't let all these facts and figures put you off your game p57. The're only put up to verify claims of punting profits, and besides, anyone with with the most basic of databases could either confirm as fact or expose as folly all or some of the above. You wouldn't want mess with all that peer review song and dance stuff.
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