4th January 2006, 08:15 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 696
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DR RON
Another quality post Woof. Just to digress to the topic of overbet box numbers, if for eample in a typical dog race box 1 starts favourite on the tote at around the $ 2.50 mark, what price do thinkwould be a more accurate measure of the dogs real chances given that some of the money placed on him was purely by systems punters. In other words what % of money do you think is placed on box 1 purely because it is box 1, or how much is box 1 typically overbet by?
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The overal result on the above dog is an ROI -18.8%, in an earlier post I advised that when you enter a race in your database you identify the race by the Fav's strongest Factor/Variable for later cluster analysis.
Say we have a $2.50 Fav in Box 1 who is the Best Speed Dog, but a slow beginner this type of dog is now a ROI -7.01% and the inverse of this type of dog is horrible -36.%.
Knowing the above overal result one could change from a vertical wager and move over to wagering horizontally in the exotics, a wager in the trifectas of 1/all/2 will show a ROI +11% for every race.
hope this helps somewhat
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