Thread: Carlyon Stakes
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Old 25th January 2006, 06:27 AM
Sportz Sportz is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crash
As far as time goes for 1200m, nothing special has been shown

He broke the track record over this course and distance at his last start! I will admit that there is a theory that horses which break track records don't perform well at their next start because it takes too much out of them. Don't know that will apply here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by crash
and as far as the horses raced against so far by C/Dane [nobodies in comparison to the competition faced today], there is nothing there to justify anything except odds of around 7/1. and up.

He hasn't beaten the horses that Spark Of Life has, but last start he thrashed Tereschenko and Stickpin and both horses have won impressively since and look quite promising.

On past performance, Spark Of Life IS in with a top chance here. I was one that really doubted him first up. After all, he'd never won at 1000m and only won 2 from 5 first up (nothing special given his record). So I don't really take much notice of his poor run there. At MV over 1200m, he's won 2 from 3 including the Manikato Stks. BUT there is another interesting thing to note about his form. I personally rate Spark Of Life higher on rain affected tracks. After his first up failure, he now has just 3 wins from 10 runs on good tracks, but he has 7 from 9 on dead to heavy. The one race that he did lose at MV was on a good track. The same sort of situation exists with Virage De Fortune. She's won 2 from 2 at the track and 1 from 1 at track and distance, but she also seems to prefer rain affected tracks. She's won 2 from 5 on good tracks, but 5 from 5 on dead or worse. I assume that Moonee Valley will be a good track tonight, so it will be interesting to see how that affects things. Who knows? Perhaps Bomber Bill will upset the applecart.
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