So is this subjective or objective? Do you use formula's with various form factor inputs, or just pick random numbers based on some vague interpretation of the form guide.

You say you run 100 hypothetical races. Is this Monte Carlo simulation?

Sorry if I sound harsh, but your use of the word "imagining" causes me great concern.

BTW; I ran my spreadsheet on Gosford tonight. 10 races, skip the 2 maidens. Leaves 8 races for 4 wins, 50% strike rate. Pitiful dividends returning $7.50 win & $5.50 place on flat stakes.

Amanda