3rd February 2006, 06:02 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 578
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DR RON
Stix, the strike rates are for 1st 2nd and 3rds. They are not strike rates for individual horses as such but are for horses that fit a certain criteria. I would have assumed that horse A would finish in the top 2 about 2/3 of the time making it about a 36% chance of being in the quinella, and there would be a formula for working out the other combinations chances.
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Dr. Ron, It is not so easy to work out the chances of a horse to run in the Quinella in the manner you described. Using place strike-outs mean virtually zip in this way, e.g. the horse with the lowest place strike-rate could be a Group 1 performer, while the horse with the highest place strike-rate could still be running around in restricted races.
Better still is to work out the chances based on price - a far better indicator. |