Chrome,
Under the circumstances you have laid out, I would pretty much agree with your assessment. but not with backing 3 runners unless at good odds which would be extremely unlikely if the circumstances you laid out were correct.





The first thing I do is write down the average earning for runners in a race [I bet on very few races so no big problem] from 1, the top earner down in order. I move on from there to recent form and class [up or down], weight carrying ability from the horses history for the topies. I'm looking here for wins at current weight in the class [or near it] now running in, but not necessarily at the distance. I then look for any training patterns which is often not so obvious [most of my bets are in 4yr. old and up races], Jockey's used, what was the horse doing this time last year and take especially note of recent over-spelling or freshening [2 or 3 runs then spell or freshen] which often indicate injuries.

From there on it's fairly straight forward handicapping but the average earnings really start to come into play when things are looking too equal elsewhere in the process. I hedge toward the better earner, especially if there is a noticeable difference. With a little dose of artistic divining for the particular circumstances of each race I'm handicapping and then working out an approx. 80% price-line for the main chances. Everyone has their own variation of my handicapping theme.

I sometimes get it right and can get reasonable odds but often I don't considering the variability of outcome in many races. If I can't get reasonable odds because my main selection is going to start favorite. I often then ignore the race if I consider the price too low for the field size or comp. involved and more often than not is is too low. Most of my bets are not on favorites but 2nd. to 5th. favorites as that is the area a fair price is more easily obtained :-)