
9th February 2006, 02:23 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 2,428
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I have done some research over some 20,000 races.
This is a Value Rule I have come up with.
If one is targeting 3 horses in the market e.g.(2nd,3rd,4th Favs) price on those 3 have to add up to a total div of approx $22.00+ (21.00 is ok) before it becomes a bet.
If targeting 4 horses e.g.(2,3,4,5th Favs), the market price has to total $34.00+ (33.00 is OK)
When one is calculating this , its simpler to round off the divs that one is looking at, to get the approximation.
This is done so as to be betting equivalent to 1/1 ($2.00).
I beleive one has to try & bet to approx 1/1+ as much as possible so as to absorb the natural run of outs that are unavoidable & avoid constant odds on betting as much as possible , so as to minimise the slow death syndrome that comes with it after a few outs.
One should find, following the value rule above, that they will either break even or be in front over say 40 bets, at level stakes, same amount on each.
We are then hoping ,that Dutching will make the opportunity for profit greater because of its proportional betting nature.
I would be leaning towards outlaying the same amount for each race but having the amounts staggered on each horse in proportion to their price.
That way we can take greater advantage of the larger payers that may come along.
Cheers.
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Cheers.
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