XPT I think Belzain is a huge chance, at very decent odds. Being very overlooked, but nothing at all wrong with it's Flemington win, here's a good form line for you:

Bendigo Cup, True Courser first, Belzain second, 1.8 lengths between them, both horses carried 52kgs. Today, Belzain again carries 52 kgs, True Courser has 57.5.....

Something to think about, (as Nadia would say - "That's for sure and certain.")