Fryingpan,

Many thanks for the prior post link. I was really interested in that % of winner in Top 5 Average Prizemoney.

Maybe that is my problem. Instead of looking for the Top 6 I should limit it to the Top 5. I'll run it over my data to see if it reduces the number of losing bets over the past few weeks.

Chrome Prince,

Many thanks for your insight. I thought the idea from 'formpro' reinforced your thoughts.

I have found a useful filter for identifying early career winners is to ensure that the career win strike rate is reflected or bettered in the horses past five starts.

This simple rule generally eliminates early achievers at 2 year old level that fail to go on.


LB