I've had an idea for a while that I've never tested but wonder if anyone else has. basically as we know only 30% of favs or pre-post favs (what we used to call paper favs)win and backing them all always produces a loss. Now with all sorts of filters etc we continue the quest to turn it into the "elusive" Well my idea is to concentrate on the races that are discarded, i.e. bcoz the stats tell us that the % drops under certain conditions.

Maybe concentrating on the next 2 or three in betting or betting the field agains the fav (as offered by IAS etc.
Rough eg. say we have isolated a particular parameter where the pick under those conditions produces a loss of 60% on T/O, then we could back the field against it and produce a profit overall??? any comments??