i know the feeling as what happened yesterday doesnt always happen.
for example petite oiseau was the launceston cup favorite and placed group 3 in the hobart cup last start.
i saw it run the start before when it finished (fourth i think) it was unable to take a run when offered and appeared lack dash.
i disregarded it yesterday on that count and its price was unrealistic.

punting is always a question of being right now and again and hope that you come out in front.

backfitting is one way of proving your ideas but when practised ahead e.g. on todays racing it is not so easy as so many horses may fit the profile.
recent placings in listed or group racing and a good price is probably the best i can do.
however i did back the 3 horses mentioned (for a change).
i have nothing at all today sir craiglee is the only listed horse running at canterbury and hasnt won since the cows came home.
it would be a lost cause trying to backfit sir craiglee

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laurie