Okay.I think I got it now!
You come up with what the team is capable of.
Then impose penalties.Substantial penalties.
But very minor bonuses,if any.
A team is only as good as it is.You can't do better than your best.But you can do worse.

WATCH OUT BOOKIES!.I know where you live.
My name is MO,and I'm coming to get YOU!

Latest amendments to the remaining games with the benefits of hindsight.

Adelaide Port Power - 15 $1.50 $3.00
St.Kilda Collingwood - 45 $1.12 $8.90
West Coast Fremantle - 20 $1.40 $3.50

Running Tally Invested $205 Returned $229.7 POT 12%

2 games for consideration today.
St.Kilda available @ $1.47 and Eagles @ $1.90
If I back them both,and one of them goes down,the result would be a loss to the BANK.
Makes sense to just take a double.
Being up $25,I make it the bet at about $2.80.