Luckyboy,

Sorry for the delay in my reply.

This is the problem, my database was only started since 1/1/2003, so the number of qualifying bets is obviously minimal.

However, I do have confidence in the longterm success of it, because of the very high strike rate and the number of winners which make up the actual profit.

Here is a full workout of results....

RULES
1. Greater than or equal to 50% Win strike rate.
2. Ranked #1 Average Prizemoney.
3. Last Start Winner
4. Starting within 30 days of last start.
5. Tote price must be less than $3.00 just prior to the jump.
6. Meropolitan tracks only***

Bets - 50
Winners - 26
Placngs - 46***
Win Strike Rate - 52.00%
Place Strike Rate - 92.00%
Win Profit - $6.30
Place Profit - $9.00
Win Profit On Turnover 12.60%
Place Profit On Turnover 18.00%
Win Average Dividend $2.17
Place Average Dividend $1.28

If you eliminated all horses starting at less than $2.00 this is the result....

Bets - 31
Winners - 17
Placngs - 27***
Win Strike Rate - 54.84%
Place Strike Rate - 87.10%
Win Profit - $11.20
Place Profit - $5.90
Win Profit On Turnover 36.13%
Place Profit On Turnover 19.03%
Win Average Dividend $2.48
Place Average Dividend $1.37

Obviously, the sample is small, and needs a lot more data to draw conclusions, but it does indicate the power of strike rate combined with API.

What gives a lot of confidence is the very high place P.O.T. provided you stick to the price filters.

I have followed this for some time, and while sometimes you'll miss a borderline bet because of very late price fluctuations on the tote, this is more than compensated for by using IAS or Betfair to get much better dividends.

Hope this helps.