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Old 22nd March 2006, 09:45 AM
jfc jfc is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Sydney
Posts: 402
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A Plan to Perdition.

This is an arithmetic progression through 100 levels, where level 1 = $5 and level 100 = $500.

The illusory attraction for mugs attempting this is they think it will take them an unrealistically long time to attain ruin.

What they don't realise is the higher the level, the less chance of winning the game in that round.

At level 1 the probability of winning is 30%.

At level 2 it is either 30% or a more likely 9% for a weighted average of under 20%.

And it doesn't get better.

It is possible to win all 6 from 6 in a round and still not pay for the accumulated losses, meaning automatic demotion to a more expensive level.

The optimum staking for 2/1 roulette ********** is the Kelly Criterion. It says "don't bet".

However this Plan is worse than most duds in that it contradicts Kelly in all 3 parameters - Odds, Edge and Bank!
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