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Old 24th March 2006, 08:50 PM
crash crash is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: gippsland lakes/vic
Posts: 5,104
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wesmip1
Manygeese,
I would think on Level Stakes it is down if you class each bet as a bet.
But if you class each Meeting as a bet then it is doing well.
Good Luck.


Hmmm. The meetings as a bet? It's not the meetings that are getting progressive bets, but the bets within the meetings. For a 40% fav. SR meeting there is a possible run of outs of about 15 bets. [10 for 50%]. Easily a whole card anyway. In fact it means it's 'probable'.
Each meeting is separate so it's not beyond chance or probability for several meeting to be a wipe out on the same day. The more meetings covered in a negative expectation game the greater the potential of that happening.

"I would think on Level Stakes it is down"

If the system is sound [odds wise profitable for flat stakes at say 40% Fav. SR within all the meetings], flat stakes will make a profit without any progression.

If not as thought [above quote], long term loss will kick in eventually. Mathematically due to the laws of probability it must. 'Chance' can avoid it for a time but 'probability' says it must happen because the bets are continually against the odds at even 40% fav. SR. meetings. The 'house' has 60% against you if flat stakes can't make a profit long term for a meeting. Has any calculating been done to see if flat stakes have been profitable for the 40% meetings at least at the average odds for a fav.? Maybe they are.

If not, chance can go your way for some time at 40% SR but eventually the progression betting will turn into a nasty double-edged sword. It will start swiping at you with it's sharp side.

Hope that was all nice and clear to everyone :-) [?]
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