In terms of my pure speed and pace figures a quick glance without any real form study shows:

Lonhro 108+ clearly the pick of the bunch, Boreal 107 if he can repeat his Villiers run (a big ask)
Shogun Lodge 106
Defier 106
Grand Armee 105 (with some upside from weight relief)
Gordo 105
Pruple Groove 104
Thorn Park 104
Dash for Cash 103

Some of the others like Scenic Peak are capable of producing ratings good enough to win but not on a consistent basis.


No to get a little controversial....I'm willing to take on Defier. My figures suggest he isn't likely to be as effective over 1600m with a big weight and solid pace. Plenty may disagree and he may well make a fool of me and win by 3 lengths, but i'm willing to risk him!

Thorn Park is the other I think is suspect in the pressure cooker of a group 1 mile, even well down in the weights. I'm willing to take him on as well.

Lonhro is clearly the one to beat, but looking at the longer priced brigade the value that stands out to me is Boreale and Purple Groove.

Boreale's win in the Villiers last December was huge. The early pace was fast and he showed he could handle that pressure and still run very good time. I have a big question about his fitness and current form but J Hawkes can get the less fancied ones to run a big race on the day. He produced Boreale to win the VIlliers 2nd up last time. He's well down in the weights here and while I don't think he's as good at Lonhro or Defier, he is 10 times the price.

Purple Groove was the run of the day in the Coolmore. The early pace was very slow and she was the only horse to make big ground in the race. The leaders were going very quick in the run home and her effort to make so much ground shows she has some serious speed. Last Spring she ran 2nd to Miss Zoe on Derby Day (who was flying at the time) and then ran a close up 4th in the G1 Emirates over 1600m. That combined with her run in the Coolmore makes me think she has developed into a good quality mare. She's pretty good value at $51, especially if she can get some pace on and it happens to rain (which looks possible this week).

Overall an interesting race. Nothing like sticking your neck out and be willing to risk 2 of the top 3 favourites. Time will tell!