Indeed...

You're right about not knowing at what part of a system's results we enter, whether it be at the end of a bad run, middle of one, in a "normal" period (almost a completely irrelevant word, normal, when it comes to punting), or in a profitable period.

However, (there's that word again) in the absence of going back to the start of racing in Australia, and therefore the TRUE beginning of every system ever built on Australian racing, we must start somewhere. And if we start far enough back, where we entered becomes less relevant because the results since begin to stack up on their own. If, for example, I went back 10 years with this system (in a couple of months from now I'll be able to do that - without a time machine too) then it would be of little relevance at all at what point I entered, because the results since add enough info as they are.

For now, for this system, (which I started punting yesterday, 15 bets total for the day, profit of 3.3 units, pleased of course), I think a 1% increasing/reducing (weekly recalculation) of total bank is safe enough without being too wimpy - in the test period I'd have lost 58% of my bank in the worst period, but at the end of the two years ended up well in front.

Personally, I don't think two years worth of data and 6000 bets are enough. When I can, I will test this system over the last ten years, break down the results year by year, month by month, and if it wins every year, I'll start to engage the inflate-ometer on my noggin.

But, of course, as always the proof comes in the pudding, or in this case, the punting, actually outlaying the money, keeping the records, tracking the results, and - importantly - getting a "feel" for it. I am looking forward to seeing how this is going after one month, then two, see if I can get in front (have the POT figure in the Excel sheet where I'm recording the info permanently in conditionally formatted BLACK rather than RED), get the "lead" on the method and maintain it.