OK this is not only worrying for me, guys, it's also worrying for everyone else whose been in on this thread - see that list I published previously, the month by month breakdown? Well, that's only five of the months as losing months, not six. I don't know how I counted that as six, and I don't know why no-one picked up on it!!!
It must be because I'm so highly respected here, held in such high regard and esteem that as soon as I said "six months losing" no-one thought to question, because surely this genius, this Goliath of an intellect could not have made such an elementary, moronic error as to miscount the plusses and minusses!!
Well, it seems I have.
So, five months losing, seven months winning. That's becoming a little more easy to handle.
To break them down, here they are:
Losing months: -39, -19, -21, -40, -26
Winning months: +107, +98, +31, +108, +2, +134
I'm a lot happier right now, looking at that - because also there might have been losing months there but they're not that big. Even 40 bets (though 40% of your bank if betting flat stake) is not so bad when you've got an increasing/reducing bank. It still means this system is going to be volatile, but some of those winning months are really great winning months.
So, anyway, here it is broken down month by month for each of the two years, rather than both combined:
2004
Jan -14
Feb +2
Mar +64
Apr -16
May +26
June -36
July -57
Aug +16
Sep +93
Oct +22
Nov -1
Dec +45
Total = +144 for the year
2005
Jan -25
Feb -21
Mar +43
Apr -5
May +72
June -4
July +31
Aug +15
Sep +15
Oct -21
Nov +135
Dec +37
Total = +273 for the year
So, both years in the positive, healthily so, esp 2005.
Losing months, broken down
2004: -14, -16, -36, -57, -1
2005: -25, -21, -5, -4, -21
So, of the 10 losing months, 3 of them are virtual chop-outs (and with better than tote odds, surely would be chop-outs). That means there's actually only seven of the 24 months total which are REAL losing months, if you will, or about 30% of them. I said earlier I wanted 75% of the months in profit, well we're getting closer now.
The seven losing months go -14, -16, -21, -21, -25, -36, -57. Those two worst months were June and July of 2004 - the worst run of the method, quite clearly. Loss of 93 units over those two months. I guess what that shows is that you need to minimize damage in times of loss.
To illustrate this, I've compiled a little example. If you'd started with a $1000 bank and betting 1% reducing/increasing ($10 start point and a $10 minimum no matter what the bank) on each and started at the start of '04, by June 1 your bank would be $1630 (profit $630), and your bet size $16, when the losing streak begins. Beacause of reducing/increasing bet size, by the end of July when you've lost 93 units over the two months, your bank is down to $690. If you had a "non-decreasing" clause in there, your bet size would have peaked and held at $21 from early April, and on July 25th you'd have lost the last of your bank. So, increasing/reducing has kept you in the game and only lost 31% of your initial bank, non-reducing has wiped you out.
Interestingly, if you'd just level staked $10 without increasing/reducing at all, at the end of July your bank would be $690. So, not much difference if you just flat stake but then you don't give yourself a chance for big profits as you increase. For me, I think this shows that the 1% increasing/reducing has the scope to take advantage of "good times" and the ability to cope with the bad runs without a wipeout. However, you need the minimum bet rule. I set it at $10 for the sake of simplicity of maths for this, it of course depends on yourself but realistically you wouldn't want it below $5. From $5 to professional punting levels is like from the Manangatang picnic gallops to the Cox Plate. As I said, I've used $1000/$10 as a good point for maths.
OK, just re-read all of that. I don't even really know what point I am trying to make, however I think what this has done is let me learn a lot more about what I am potentially in for with this system. This is not going to be a steadily increasing bank like the graphs on the glossy pages of the system sellers, which is why I think th 1% increasing/redecing is perfect for it. It runs with the peaks and troughs and adjusts itself for them.
Waht do you guys think of those figures?