I've rated seven starters (excluding Living Spirit) as having strong winning chances.

In tab no. order these are (1)Shout From Maroof, (2) Laetare, (3) Magic Aces, (4) Freaky Kontiki, (5) Diffraction, (11) Diamond Dash and (13) Rose Of Thunder.

Next in line are (12) Rave and (14) Buster's Yousha, followed by the rest.

4.5len between top rated and lowest rated.

At least 7 starters like to lead or race on the pace, so expect speed should be on.

Top rated around 1len below my "Karrakatta" winner base-rating, so field a little below normal standard.

If (10) Living Spirit, with Paul Harvey onboard, has above average ability, will be hard to beat. Drawn wide, not sure if any disadvantage, as unaware how this filly normally races. Perhaps some other forum members can comment.


(1)Shout From Maroof - likes to race near the lead so perhaps barrier 10 a slight disadvantage. Last start beat (over 1100) Laetare by snk and Freaky Kontiki by nk. Meets Laetare 0.5kg worse and Freaky Kontiki 0.5kg better.

(2) Laetare - normally sits midfield running on at the end. Last start strong finishing 2nd to Shout From Maroof, an improvement on his previous start when beaten 3.75len by Royal Fire. Won two in a row (1000m / 1100m) in January.

(3) Magic Aces - drawn very wide which could see him settle well off the pace. Won the Crystal Slipper Stakes (1200m) in December 02, running on from midfield. Most recent start (first start after a spell) ran on from last on the turn, to finish 1.75len behind Shout From Maroof over 1100m. Meets all horses here (that contested that race) on better terms. Ridden by Paul Harvey on that day, who has elected to ride Living Spirit.

(4) Freaky Kontiki - normally sits just off the pace, so wide barrier draw may prove some disadvantage. Three starts back beat Buster's Yousha by a nose over 1100m. Meets that filly 1kg worse in this race. Last start, beaten a len by Shout From Maroof, over 1100m fighting on strongly.

(5) Diffraction - looks perfectly drawn on the rails. Lead all the way last start, for an impressive win over 1000m, although track was slow. Previous start most unlucky 7th (3.5len) to Shout From Maroof, after suffering severe interference during the race. At only other start ran on well (9th on turn) to win over 1000m.

(11) Diamond Dash - last start ran on (5th on turn) to nose out Rose Of Thunder over 1100m. Meets that filly 1kg worse in this race. Drawn well so should take up a forward position. Also beat Rose Of Thunder, back in November by a head over 1000m, coming from 3rd on the turn. Meets Rose Of Thunder 2kg worse off on that run.

(13) Rose Of Thunder - likely to lead or race on the pace from a good draw. Meets Diamond Dash better at the weights for a couple of narrow defeats. With an easy run could be hard to run down.


_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2003-04-16 14:49 ]