Hi all,

It's been pouring rain here in Sydney all day and it's forecasted to continue throughout the Easter break. I would say that at this stage we are looking at a slow track.

Under those conditions I think Shogun Lodge, Crawl and Scenic Peak have even less chance than they did on a dry track. Defier, who I was willing to risk even on dry ground must become an even bigger risk in the wet. Guy Walter has mentioned numerous times that he doesn't like it much worse than Dead. Thorn Park has not yet been exposed to the wet.

Lonhro is likely to shorten further but he's already 2/1 in an 18 horse field! Expect some big money to come for him and we could be looking at a 6/4 or 7/4 favourite come start time.

The other form consideration is barriers. Come race 8, out wide may be the place to be. Horse drawn in could be forced to race in the chopped up going while wider runners enjoy the better ground.