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Originally Posted by marcus25
No! not some random number!
Common sense I would say. I personally settled for $2.50. Reason? Odds on favs just do not win often enough to produce a profit. But odds above the 2.50
line fit nicely into a 20 to 25% strikerate with an ave. return big enough to make some money.
If you call that looking for value, yes I cheerfully admit I am.
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Hypothetical situation:
A horse showing $1.10 on the tote with 1 minute to go. Somebody offer you odds of $2.40.
You are saying to me that you would not take it because it is less than $2.50.
I would suggest that the money bet suggests this horse has greater than an 80% chance of winning, yet you are not prepared to back it at $2.40.
My main point when I posted that not one person has suggested that they would take their top selection at whatever odds they can get. I get the feeling that they are all selective about accepting odds, and if that is the case, then they are searching for value. Simple as that.
Just an observation from the posts on this thread.
As far as your backing over $2.5 favourites, from my observations, they all win the same ratio in comparison with the odds offered (on average). Of course there are clear exceptions, but on average, you would be no better off IMHO....
Whether you get the impression from my post or not, I back every one of my selections at whatever odds I can get. I don't have any super ratings system, so I don't have the luxury of having any clue about the horses that I back... Just use a system, close my eyes, cross my fingers, and kick back and enjoy the ride while it lasts....