2nd April 2006, 08:38 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 479
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by crash
BJ,
An odds-on horse has a 50% chance of winning. That is their average SR.
Their is no reason or certainty that your $1.10 horse has an 80% chance of winning. Thats speculation only. Horses at the odds you mention get beaten all the time. I had 8 odds- on bets in a row once that all lost !!
The saying "odds-on look on" has legs:-)
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You have taken as reference all odds on horses. I can guarantee you right now that combined, have a greater than 50% strike rate.
If you were to take smaller sections of those horses you would find different results.
Group together all horses that start under $1.2.
Also group together all horses that start between $1.8 and $2.
All these horses are odds on. Are you suggesting to me that both groups will have a 50% strike rate?
I can guarantee you right now, that the shorter priced group will have a strike rate much much greater than the horses priced closer to even money.
No THERE is no certainty that my $1.10 horse itself has a greater than 80% chance of winning, but taken as a group, and averaged out, you will find I am sure, that horses that start at $1.10 or shorter, will win greater than 80% of the time.
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