Thread: Finding Value
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Old 2nd April 2006, 09:51 PM
BJ BJ is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
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Quote:
Originally Posted by manygeese
If you are going to do that you are going to have to be prepared to bet on every race as there is no rational link between a horse starting over the odds and an improved chance of winning the race.

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It is not about having a greater chance of winning, it is purely about the money involved in betting a selection and the money returned to your pocket.

There is nothing anywhere that says if you choose a certain method, you must bet every race.

Take 2 roulette tables. A) pays 2 to 1 on even money, and B) pays evens..

Do you need to bet every spin on table A) to improve your chances of winning?
Or are you just at an advantage no matter when you choose to bet?

I would not feel obligated at all to bet every spin, but I can guarantee that I would be trying to. If you have an advantage, the more you turnover, the more you make. The bigger the advantage the higher the profits, the less the risk.


Imagine you rate the field.
Horse A) is rated as a $4 horse.
Horse B) is rated as a $5 horse.
A) on the books is $2.
B) on the books is $100.

Anybody that bets on horse A is mad. Clearly the value lies with horse B. If you choose to rate the field, then why would you not back the value?
If you merely wanted to find the top selection, you would not waste your time rating the field.

If you have such little faith in your ability to rate the second horse, then why should you have faith in your ability to rate the top horse.
Makes no sense to me.
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