Thread: Finding Value
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Old 3rd April 2006, 06:26 AM
crash crash is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: gippsland lakes/vic
Posts: 5,104
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crash
BJ,
An odds-on horse has a 50% chance of winning. That is their average SR.
The saying "odds-on look on" has legs:-)


Please note the words: 'AVERAGE SR' above [meaning overall, all odds-on runners combined].

Party, I agree that the smaller the odds-on price, the greater the winners in that odds on price range [obviously goes without saying surely]. I was just mentioning a well know fact about 'average' SR for the price range. If 50% is wrong as BJ claims and it's much higher. all we have to do is back all the odds-on runners and make our fortune!

Runners starting at $1.10 might have an averaged 80% chance of winning which sounds about right, but BJ was indulging in speculation only to say that horse A starting at $1.10 has an 80% chance of winning. Not enough info. will ever be available to make such a claim before a race and I'm sure we have all heard about the 1 horse race that the runner managed to lose [happened].

Look at this example: 'Back all horses with a win SR of 50% or more, that is the only runner with that SR in the race for better than $2 and you will live in clover'. Correct or not? Exactly my point. [without going into the obvious details] It's absurd.

BJ,
Here is another average: All favorites have an average SR of around 30-33%.

Both average Fav. SR along with average odds-on SR are well known averages. If you doesn't believe either one [or even both] of them, that's fine by me. I'm not going to argue the point.
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