Bagman,

Your logic 'as presented' is very sound. No argument there. However [oh that word], you are presenting the flat stakes punter in your figures as chasing his losses, which he isn't of course in the way you have presented him [needs a 23/1 shot]. Your progression punter on the other hand is now chasing a 12/1 shot as you correctly point out. What are the potential runs of outs for a 12/1 chance? You see your punter with every progression is also progressing his potential runs of outs also. Nasty.

Where the flat stakes punter is always going to be ahead is when runs of outs strike, especially a large one. When runs of ins strike the progression punter has no advantage whatsoever [no progressions]. Punting is a war of attrition, throwing larger and larger sums of money at a problem [losing] will not win the war. Just look where the progressive punter George Bush is heading in Iraq ....without a paddle :-)

Cheers.