Mad,
I think sometimes punters tend to dissect too much and not look at the raw facts.
You do not have enough facts from those "paper" figures.
What condition was the track on both occassions?
What was the pace?
From which barrier did the winner come from?
Was he given an easy run or pratted three deep?
Did the horse you're analyzing run on or fade, or just held position?
Most of this we don't readily know.
The MM race was run faster early with a slower 600m, but why exactly?
I think one needs to look at groups of horses rather than individuals when you don't have all the info.
The best guide is the market price on the day, if the horse ran fast and is in the top end of the market, then it's a pretty good bet, if it's wide open, then usually the figures you have regarding times are not as good as they look on paper.
Disclaimer: before people jump down my throat and shout "overs" or "value", I can prove this...if need be
The impact of weight is very overrated, so is track condition, some punters are so obssessed with these falacies, they miss winners and back more losers.
Horse A carries 55kg, but the jockey runs wide and is three wide the whole way.
Horse B carries 59kg, and the jockey hugs the rail
Who wins???
But there will always be exceptions to everything in racing!