14th April 2006, 10:56 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Sydney
Posts: 402
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Mofo
In a fixed odds event, if a horse pays $2 to win what does it pay to place? What if it pays $5 to win? How does the number of horses in the field affect the calculation?
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I suppose basically all I really want to know is how the bookies work it all out.
Cheers,
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Bookies smart enough to work it all out are also smart enough to turn in their satchels and exploit the unprecedented opportunities now available with low-rake punting.
There is an extinct class of Bookies called Each-Way Bookies who typically offer 1/4 Win odds for the Place.
That oversimplification is wrong and has been well-known since at least WWII.
In fractional odds a 2/1 Win chance would pay 1/2 for the Place.
The new decimal equivalents are 3.0W and 1.5P.
But key in such a scenario into that nifty place calculator:
e.g this 100% market:
3
3
12
20
20
20
20
20
It calculates the fair place for the 3.0W as 1.233.
That is more than a double-overlay for the Place! |