Hi all,

Statistically there are a few indicators that can highlight favourites that win and return less than the average of all favourites. I will run some numbers through my database for the last 4 years and attempt to post some of them over the next few days.

However knowledge of these statistics won't allow you to necessarily profit from them.

Each race and indeed favourite is unique and needs to be treated as such. You need to look and find things that others don't know or tend to discount. Everyone can read the stats.

My own speed and pace figures are my personal tool for finding false favourites.

2YO's and early 3YO's are the horses hyped more than any in the media and betting markets and I find they offer me the best opportunities.

Last Saturday my figures identified Windy Kate at Doomben while having a good chance was no odds on favourite, while Sir Success had a good chance and was at double figure odds in a 6 or 7 horse field....lay Windy Kate on Betfair and back Sir Success at $14...win/win. Prior to that was the Sires Produce where Untouchable was much hyped...my figures showed he only had an outside chance. A few weeks prior to that was the overrated Niello sent out at a prohibitive odds on favourite in the race won by Exceed and Excel...another successful lay.

I Will post some stats on favourites with different form factors over the next couple of days and hopefully they provide some interesting insights.