G'Day Mav,

I love this time of year. Big fields, but they are generally good quality and you get value where ever you look. No rain here for an age, so the track will be rock hard - as usual you probably don't want to be too far back on this tight track.

Race 1 - The one race on the program that i don't like. Pretty ordinary bunch. Can't get enthused about the Cummings runner. There is an enormous amount of speed here - Aerosol will go hard; Spinning Con, Celtic Trial, Danefull, Prince Arthur all have speed and like to press on. I can see them stringing this field out something chronic in the first 800m. The queston remains, can the backmarkers keep up? ??????ed if i know. La Bella Mer is a backmarker who has had a couple of runs lately for fitness and should be able to get in from the alley (Colless should jag her back). I think she can come home late at good odds. Fiery Sunset has drawn well and will get a perfect run. She doesn't win out of turn, but will be thereabouts at the death. Prince Arthur is thrown in for 3rd because hes an up-and-comer and quite frankly, there isn't much improvement in some of his opposition here.

Race 2 - Good sprint race here. Don't mind the chances of one at odds. Red Hot Pistol. I've noticed throughout his short career that this horse has been well backed on a number of occasions (sometimes without apparent cause). This leads me to believe that the stable, or someone connected, has a good opinion of him. Given that, and the good time run at the Sunny Coast a week or so back, i think he can put up a good show. The alley is a huge plus too. Becks was dominant last time and there is no reason to suggest he can't repeat the dose here. If anything, he should be better suited around Doomben. Black Suit will sit off them and hope that the leaders weaken in the last 100m or so and given the huge amount of speed runners (Becks, Naval Seal, River Hunter, Dulacca Diva, Kai Chow, Red Hot Pistol), thats not out of the question.

Race 3 - Big field, but a nice event. I don't mind Golden Fox. The last run was good at Eagle Farm - he just didnt quite get the 1400m and back at Doomben with 50m less to travel i think he can go close, if ridden in a similar manner. Morris is a promising hoop too, not getting the media attention of the other apprentices, but he goes ok. Obviously Champion Star is the logical danger, with the alley, the class drop and the good fresh form. He is in this up to his ears. Power Hunt has obviously had his fair share of injuries but has truckloads of abiltiy and it wouldn't surprise me if he ran well tomorrow. There appears to be a lot of speed in this race aswell (Tellem, Golden Fox, Viscay Star, Doonan Dancer) so all horses should have the opportunity to win.

Race 4 - Well Reigart is back and i think he'll return on a winning note. It was a terrific run in the millions - 3 deep and battled on well for 3rd. The Sydney trip didnt go right for him (he ran into Plagiarize, who i think wouldve gone close in the slipper, if not for injury), but back on home soil, hes a bit good for them i fancy. Cruskit, the stablemate might enjoy Eagle Farm more i think, but has got ability and can run well tomorrow given adequate speed (i'm assuming a strong tempo given the 17 horse field. Mr Bachelor, Heartbreak Pass and Partygoer all go forward, plus any number of others which i have missed, so speed shouldn't be a worry). Pirate Queen has been given no favours with the barrier but will go back and can steam home late if they pour the pressure on. There are a number of other good chances in here though, its a good field of 2yos.

Race 5 - Well, i'm sick and tired of High Academy. He will probably benefit from the rider change, but i'm not putting him on top. I like Game On. I can see where you are coming from Mav, but i just think from the 4 alley and against this lot, i think he can go mighty close. The huge weight drop is a big plus (i know he hasn't beaten much yet) and he has nice tactical speed. Having said that, there are a few that like to go forward here so i can see him sitting 3 or 4 back and 2 out to give him some galloping room. There is one horse that i have followed for a while and think can figure in some of the distance races this winter - Art Success. Bred to be a stayer and looks like the longer they go, the better he'll get. The 19 is dreadful but he'll go back and will be winding up late. I doubt he can win with the short straight, but i'd be keeping a close eye on him. High Academy, if he sees daylight, should be able to account for this lot on best form. Having said that, he has found daylight a pretty scarce commodity the last few runs (much to my dismay ).

Race 6 - In my view, Ice Chariot has been dudded twice in the last 2 barrier draws. Obviously 21 alley at EF is ordinary, but 1 alley at Doomben in a big field is a nightmare, especially for a horse that gets back. I just can't gamble on him getting the runs at the top of the straight. Not at 3-1. I tend to agree with you Mav, Anapine. There is really a lack of speed here, on paper, which leads me to believe that she will be able to dictate from the front and maybe steal the race on the bend. Obviously you would never dsiscount Ice Chariot - if the breaks go his way, he'll win. I just doubt he'll get the luck. Masai Pride has the horror gate, but will probably miss the start again, so he'll be back last but has a flying finish and can easily figure.

Race 7 - The highlight of the day. And what a good race it is. I agree with Mav, All Bar One is too speedy for them. No-one would be stupid enough to take him on and he'll be left alone and Colless will be able to rate him perfectly. You'd think that if he can run 68.5 at EF then the Doomben 1200m is no worries at all. Virage will be sitting on him all the way but i think All Bar One will get so much benefit kicking on the bend that she won't be able to get him. She is a clear 2nd pick though, top filly. Single Rose is an up and coming filly and could surprise a few in this carnival up here. Not here though, WFA doesn't suit her at present. I like her though. Can't wait to see Black Ink in the Stradbroke this year too, you'd think hes the perfect horse - assuming he gets the journey. But thats a discussion for another day .

Race 8 - Good one to finish on. I think Mesmerising is a special. Great fresh record, good at the track and distance, good alley and gun jockey. The speed will be on, she'll get back to about midfield, hook to the outside and run all over them. Too easy. Mr Sportsman was a good win at EF in good time a couple of weeks back and can improve on that if Bowditch can get him into clear running room. I like him as a horse, i think he'll go through these grades very quickly. Limarki is a fighter who can run quick time around this distance. I wouldn't be underestimating him tomorrow. The 2 alley will see him sitting in front on the paint. Mason can rate them well from in front too. I'm sorry i can't include My Son Day too. I love this horse but i don't like that jockey from the alley. She'll have him 3 deep for sure. Having said all that, Mesmerising will be beaten at the turn without an excuse in the world and My Son Day will box seat and win running away .

Great days racing with my best being Reigart, All Bar One and Mesmerising with good eachway chances to Golden Fox and Art Success. And keep an eye on Ice Chariot for the derby. Lot of interest there.

Good luck everyone,

Sven