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Old 20th May 2006, 09:42 AM
crash crash is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: gippsland lakes/vic
Posts: 5,104
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I remember reading a US article about ew ratio betting. The best optimum ratio according to the article was 1x6 ew. I'm not aying it is the optimum, but it seems to pan out OK. I use it when not betting straight win and they are the times when my win selections all seem to be coming 2nd or 3rd. for long enough to cause serious doubts about my handicapping ability rather than the correct answer, the horses just lost due to events that can't be handicapped.

Knowing the above intellectually however, doesn't help. Anxiety results and THAT can lead to poor handicapping and or bad bets being made, which supplies more 'evidence'. that there is something wrong with the selection process. A good time to switch to systems or place betting for awhile until chance runs it's wicked course and equilibrium returns.

Place or ratio ew betting keeps the losses down during bad times even though we might still be losing. With a small win component in our place bets [1x6] it bumps up our place return when the inevitable win[s] come up for our place only horses, especially when we are now place betting, winners seem to come up all the time :-).

The 1/6 win component makes a very small difference when we only collect for the place. At 1x5 or worse, [1x4 or even 1x3] we are looking at a more substantial loss to our place divvy and it's the place we will [mostly] be getting our collects from during the hard times when our win bets are suffering a serious bout of 'seconds'.. Alternatively, ratio betting full time has it's advantages and especially for 'percentage of pocket' punters [most of us] who do not have a punting bank and the luxury of $20 bets that are only 1 or 2% of bank and enduring a spell of seconds is very hard to take [or afford] indeed. I have been using the 1x6 approach for the last week exclusively due to a bad patch of 'seconds'.

Well we all know what Murphy does to us in these situations and I'm kicking myself, but will keep off the win bets for awhile yet. Below are the results of Murphy's law for the past week:

[have used stab prices as my NT acount prices have lots of cents in them]
All bet 1x6 unit ratio ew.
Sund. 14th May. Geelong.
r4/4 Loanhead $2.50w $1.30p
r6/11 Bush Ballad $1.60p
r7/10 Manhattan Treasure $1.60p
r8/4 Like It Is $4.20w $1.70p
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Mon. 15th Pakenham
r9/9 Cristelon
Bathurst
r4/2 Fame And Finesse
r6/4 Goldengate Bridge
r8/5 Canamble $5.70w $2.20p
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Tues. 16th Stawell
r6/4 Investments $5.30w $2p
r7/13 Vanity Quay $3.70p
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Wed.. 17th. Werribee
r3/4 Aria Diva $1.90p
r5/1 Celtic Bloom $3.70w $1.50p
r6/2 Gallantree $4w $1.70p

Eagle Farm
r6/2 United
r7/10 Partridge $4.10p
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Thurs.18th. Ballarat
r5/7 Questjeune
r6/4 Incinerator $1.70p

Hawksbury
r9/7 Wolfman Jack $4.80w $1.70p
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Fri.19th. Scone
r4/6 Sutton King $2.50w $1.40p
r7/8 Saxon

Kyeton
3.10pm
r6/8 Foreign Scandal $1.80p
r7/4 Shahana $7.60w $2.10p
r8/10 Brethren
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Dosn't take rocket science to work out win only bets here would have had me in very nice gravy. Good old Murphy:-)
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