21st May 2006, 06:52 AM
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Suspended.
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: gippsland lakes/vic
Posts: 5,104
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by crash
..........................snip.................... .....................
Place or ratio ew betting keeps the losses down during bad times even though we might still be losing. With a small win component in our place bets [1x6] it bumps up our place return when the inevitable win[s] come up for our place only horses, especially when we are now place betting, winners seem to come up all the time :-). .......................snip......................
[have used stab prices as my NT account prices have lots of cents in them]
All bet 1x6 unit ratio ew.
Sund. 14th May. Geelong.
r4/4 Loanhead $2.50w $1.30p [10x60ew:25+78=103 or 70pl.only=91]
r6/11 Bush Ballad $1.60p [96 / 112]
r7/10 Manhattan Treasure $1.60p [96 / 112]
r8/4 Like It Is $4.20w $1.70p [144 / 119]
Totals: $10x60ew = $439 / $70p only = $434 Outlay removed: Profit +159 / +154
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Mon. 15th Pakenham
r9/9 Cristelon
Bathurst
r4/2 Fame And Finesse
r6/4 Goldengate Bridge
r8/5 Canamble $5.70w $2.20p [189 / 154]
Totals 189 / 154 Outlay removed: Profit -91 / -126
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Tues. 16th Stawell
r6/4 Investments $5.30w $2p [173 / 120]
r7/13 Vanity Quay $3.70p [222 / 259]
Totals 395 / 379 Outlay removed: Profit +255 / +239
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Wed.. 17th. Werribee
r3/4 Aria Diva $1.90p [114 / 133]
r5/1 Celtic Bloom $3.70w $1.50p [127 / 105]
r6/2 Gallantree $4w $1.70p [142 / 119]
Eagle Farm
r6/2 United
r7/10 Partridge $4.10p [246 /287]
Totals 629 / 644 Outlay removed: Profit +279 / +294
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Thurs.18th. Ballarat
r5/7 Questjeune
r6/4 Incinerator $1.70p [102 / 119]
Hawksbury
r9/7 Wolfman Jack $4.80w $1.70p [150 / 119]
Totals 252 / 238 Outlay removed: Profit +42 / +28
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Fri.19th. Scone
r4/6 Sutton King $2.50w $1.40p [109 / 98]
r7/8 Saxon
Kyeton
3.10pm
r6/8 Foreign Scandal $1.80p [108 / 126]
r7/4 Shahana $7.60w $2.10p [202 / 147]
r8/10 Brethren
Totals 419 / 371 Outlay removed: Profit +65 / +21
Overall profit from 10X60 ew +709 from 70pl. only +610
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Dosn't take rocket science to work out win only bets here would have had me in very nice gravy. Good old Murphy:-)
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Mannygeese,
What I should have done with this previous post was to demonstrate the effects of 1x6 ratio betting [say $10 to win x $60 for the place]. So I have added to the above the results of both straight place bet for $70 and also $10 x $60 ew bet. As you can see I was better off with the 1x6 ratio ew bet on all days except one, when Partridge got up for $$4.10p [if it have won, I would certainly have been glad of the the win component!].
A 1x5 or 1x4 ratio is better only for a high win rate, which generally would not be expected in place betting. I haven't worked out the returns for 1x5 or 1x4 ratios for the above week, but the win rate was higher than expected [Murphy's law :-)]. Conversely, if I had a very low win rate [say half the above winners], a 1x5 or 1x4 ratio would be eating too much of the place return. I have messed around with other ratios, but for me personally, I find the 1x6 ratio as mentioned in the article I read, pretty spot on.
Cheers.
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