DP,

I have to say that I jumped in and backed NSW last week when they were only $1.70. Silly move!!! The team is weaker now and you'll be able to get $2.10 or something at kickoff time. But the fact is that I ALWAYS back NSW against Qld at Telstra Stadium, and I'm well ahead for doing so.

There is a concerted betting move on Qld right now and come game time, they're likely to be clear cut favourites. That's mainly on the back of Brett Finch being brought in as a late replacement at half back. He's probably NSW's 4th or 5th choice in the position and not a very popular choice either from NSW supporters. Many are seeing him as the weak link in the team.

Overall, despite the injuries, it's still a strong team that NSW have picked. If Gower was there, I would have no hesitation in picking NSW. With Finch there instead, well I'm not quite so sure now. Qld have a classy in form backline that could have a slight edge over NSW, but Origin matches are often won in the forwards and that's where I think NSW have the advantage. We still don't know for sure if Buderus will play, but if he doesn't, Priddis will be a very capable replacement.

I keep coming back to the fact that NSW have NEVER lost to Qld at this ground in 10 previous meetings. I agree that with no Johns, Barrett, Kennedy, Minichello or Gower playing for NSW, this is certainly Qld's best chance, but do you want to take $1.70-$1.80 about a team when history shows they simply don't win there.

In summing up, I'm not really sure what advice I can give you as to a bet on the game. If this was just an ordinary game of football, I'd probably say no bet. All of NSW's disruptions have really thrown the game wide open now and given Qld a damn good chance. All I can say is that NSW are going to end up being pretty good odds for a team which is still quite strong and has such an incredible record at this ground.