G'day Mav,

Great days racing tomorrow at Doomben...the fields are pretty big but they're mostly quality and the weather has stayed fine. It seems that we agree on a few too, which is always good for the confidence .

Race 1 - The barrier draw has completely ruined this race. Mr Sportsman, Mesmerising and Masai Pride the best 3 horses in the field for mine and they all draw the carpark. Brilliant. I'm going to stick with Mesmerising. She needed the run first up, peaking on her run in the straight after having a nice run in transit. I think if Cahill can find a reasonable spot during the race, the speed is good enough to see her right there at the death. Masai Pride has tons of ability, not sure about the drop in distance though and of course his nasty habit of missing the kick. He's a top chance if Byrne jags him back onto the fence and hooks him out in the straight though. Duke Sam has always had ability and the draw has seen him come right into this race. The couple of runs back from the spell and the claim for Morris really help too. Good one to start on i think, theres value around.

Race 2 - Like Mameluke, same as Mav. Top horse in and around this trip. McMahon rode him last time for the win and i think he can do it again. These ones aren't much chop and he has plenty of upside. Somehow i don't think the $9 quote in the paper will hold up, but anywhere near $5-6 is good value. Tellem probably struggles at 1600 but around Doomben i think his 'class' will get him a long way. Katsidis will probably press forward and hope nothing takes him on. Not a bad chance at the odds. The 3 alley is a welcome change too. Fiery Sunset doesn't know how to win, but certainly knows how to place and can do it again tomorrow from the good alley. Won't be too far off them in the run either, which might be an advantage in this race.

Race 3 - I think i'm losing my mind, just quietly. I like 2 here which are, on fixed odds, 100-1 and 30-1 respectively. Twostonelighter i think can improve significantly on his first up run. Well bred and has King on board. Also, in my experience Ross doesn't bring em to these sort of races unless they have some sort of ability. I'm willing to take the risk at the big odds. Fiveoclockshadow is another at odds i think isn't hopeless. Will derive a huge amount of benefit from the first up run and has blinkers applied tomorrow which should sharpen him up. Pirate Queen can improve too. She has plenty of ability as we saw in her first campaign and will be running on tomorrow. I just can't come into the fav here, Lasoron. The time wasn't great last time and the 16 alley is a nightmare.

Race 4 - Hate the race, so i've gone for Cold Start. I think its about the right time for him to click into gear and lead them a merry dance. This is his trip and Mason is on board. He's had the 3 runs back from a spell for fitness, so i think he can give a good sight. you'll know 20m into the race whether hes a chance too - if he ain't in front, he won't be winning . Maybe Douro Valley and Classic Karla for the placings who might be able to run home at the death if the speed is on. Not a betting race for mine.

Race 5 - This is top quality. You could make a convincing case for 10 of these. I've settled on Starlactic. I love this horse. Hes got multiple gears. He can lead and kick again in the straight, he can sit off them and sprint in the straight. Hell, he could probably sit back last and be a show. I know this is his biggest test to date, but with the likely speed i see him sitting about 5th or 6th 4 lengths off and sprinting over the top with the feather weight. Really promising galloper. Any Suggestion will be infront i suspect and will take plenty of catching. Hes a Doomben horse, through and through. He can get such a kick off the corner and runs sensational times. They'll have to be right on their game to beat him. Sir Brekky trialled well the other day apparently, but i can't have him. He just doesn't win enough to justify my backing him. Hes a good old horse though and can bob up for a place.

Race 6 - I'm not sure about the Derby this year, can't see much quality. This is the lead up and i can't get excited about any of them. I've settled on Belamonte but i've got no confidence. His win was totally dominant last time. Gave nothing else a chance. The 2000m is a query for mine (don't know if the singspiel's stay?) but the win over 1600m last time was too good to ignore. Too short to back though. Beauty Watch is no doubt at the distance and has drawn well. Beasley will ensure she gets a great run and won't be far off at the end. Going for the Oaks and won't be far off there either, i would suggest. One at odds thats worth watching is Greenfinder. Trainer knows what hes doing and the time at the Coast last time was pretty good. Is capable of running well here with some speed on.

Race 7 - The big one. Tough race. If Daunting Lad had drawn inside 4 i'd have made him a special. I still think hes good enough to win, but he'll need lots of luck. I just love the way hes been attacking the line lately. Got beaten by a freakish rails run last time (which wouldn't have opened up 9 times out of 10). If Pattillo gets him in, i think hes a huge chance. At the 26s, hes well worth a nibble. Don't discount All Bar One. He'll lead this field and if Colless can hold him up until the 300m he might be able to pinch it. Shouldn't have to do as much work over the slightly longer journey to reach the lead either. Like him at eachway odds too. The query runner is Nevis and with all the speed on up front, she might just be able to sprint all over them at the death. Plenty of talent there and David Payne is a top trainer.

Race 8 - Single Rose is a top chance if she isn't too jaded from the last run. Don't know what Nikolic was doing, but back to her own age here i think she can go close. The alley helps no end. My Son Day has loads of potential and the jockey change is great. Though i'm not a wrap for Seamer, hes at least a senior rider. Nova Star sucks you in and then spits you out more times than not, but she has obvious talent and can run on tomorrow with all the speed that will be on. I wouldn't leave her out of any multiples. Good race to finish on that, with some really nice gallopers going around.

Great days racing overall with my best being Mameluke, Starlactic and Single Rose with good rough chances to Daunting Lad and Twostonelighter.

Good luck everyone

Sven