Quick intro about myself before I get into the meat of this year’s French Open Draw.


I used to be the tennis service provider at Smartgambler for two years and although I stopped providing the service, I do still have a very strong passion for tennis betting, keeping all my databases up to date on a daily basis.

This year’s French Open does appear on paper to be a two horse race, with Federer playing Nadal in the Final and the young Spaniard looking to be the winner. In the Rome Masters Final there was only one or two points separating these players so it points to a great Final if they can get through 6 best of five set matches to get there.


No value in picking either of those guys, and assuming they do go all the way to the Final, there will be 6 other Quarter Finalists and 2 opponents at the Semi stage so let’s see if we can work the value players out.

Top Quarter


Federer should get there easily playing either Berdych, Volandri, Melzer or Kiefer them being the most likely players from the next chunk – an open section with any of those guys capable on their day.

Ancic vs Galvani in the next section, getting the right to play Acasuso or Robredo. Acasuso was exhausted by the time he reached the Semis of the recent Hamburg event, so his loss to Stepanek shouldn’t be treated as a significant blot on his copybook.

My pricing says it will be Federer vs Robredo in the Quarters – with Federer to go through to the Semis. Acasuso making it to the Quarters though would not shock me.

Second Quarter

Nalbandian plays Grosjean, Pavel or Nieminen – most likely Nieminen (according to my pricing).

Gaudio plays Davydenko.

Quarter Final Nalbandian vs Davydenko with the Argentine the most likely winner.

Third Quarter


Roddick struggling at the moment so Beto Martin or Ollie Rochus here to play Stepanek (Baghdatis is in this section, but clay is really not his thing).

Ferrer to play Verdasco.


Quarter Final to be Stepanek vs Verdasco with Stepanek priced shorter to make it to the Semis – he does have a bad record deep in events though so I wouldn’t be banking on him making it to a Semi.


Final Quarter


Almagro to play Gonzalez (Gonzo with Safin 1^st and as we know the Russian can be good on his day – can be awful too).

Hewitt of play Nadal – Hewitt not 100% at the moment and no lead up form to speak of but that section is so shallow he could make it that far on grit alone (maybe Daniel if I had to elect one to beat Hewitt).

Quarter to be Almagro vs Nadal.


Semis to be Federer vs Nalbandian and Stepanek vs Nadal. Yet again the third quarter of the draw being the weakest section – at the last 4 Grand Slams we have had Davydenko here last year, Thomas Johansson at Wimbledon, Robert Ginepri at the US Open and Nalbandian at the Aussie Open make Semis from that chunk of the draw.


In order my pricing is:


Nadal

Federer

Robredo

Nalbandian

Davydenko

Stepanek

Almagro

Acasuso

Verdasco

Ancic

Gonzalez

Gaudio

Happy punting if you are going to have a bet here. I'm leaving the outrights alone - however players outside of Nadal and Federer may present trading opportunities later in the event, for those who like that style.


Cheers


Tony